Free MLB Picks and Parlays – Monday, August 6th, 2018

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The Pirates picked up Joe Musgrove in the Gerrit Cole trade, and he's proving to be a good return for Pittsburgh

Welcome back to the LazyBets Free MLB Picks column for Monday, August 6th.  We’re taking solace in the fact that we absolutely crushed the closing line with our pick on Sunday, grabbing Texas at -128 on Saturday night before it moved to -162 by game time.  Unfortunately, Rangers’ starter Drew Hutchison got clobbered in a 9-6 Orioles win.

Oh well; if we keep making bets that have that much expected value, we’ll take our chances in the long-run.  We’ve got another good one for Monday - the wrong team is being favored in the Pittsburgh-Colorado matchup, and that should provide us with tons of value on the moneyline.  Let’s get into it.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Musgrove) at Colorado Rockies (Freeland)

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BetOnline*Pirates +12850% on $1000
MyBookiePirates +12550% on $1000
BovadaPirates +12050% on $250

Game Time: 8:40 PM EST

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Run Line: Pirates +1.5 (-155)

Moneyline: Pirates +128

Bet the Pirates +128

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Pirates Rockies Pick

We’re starting to make a habit of betting against Rockies starter Kyle Freeland - we’ve bet against Colorado in three of his last four starts.  Despite only going 1-2 in those wagers, we’re confident that the sportsbooks are overrating him and we’ll continue to target him as long as the prices are this good.

Freeland’s solid 3.20 ERA in 2018 is probably what’s fooling people, but when diving a little deeper it’s easy to see why he projects to have much worse results going forward.  He has below average strikeout and walk rates, and he’s been getting very lucky on balls in play and with runners on base.  At only 25 years old, some may be looking at Freeland’s performance this year and are starting to convince themselves that he’s a foundational piece for the Rockies moving forward.  We see a replacement-level starter who has gotten very lucky in his sophomore season.

While not getting quite the same results as Freeland this year, Pirates starter Joe Musgrove is a much better long-term bet than Freeland is.  While Musgrove’s stuff isn’t electric either, he prevents walks at a far better clip and also avoids homers more successfully. He’s only started 11 times so far this season and his 3.63 ERA could rise a bit by the end of the year, but he’s way better than replacement-level like Freeland is.

The only way Monday’s moneyline would make any sense is if Colorado held a large advantage offensively, but that’s not the case at all.  The Pirates have been just above average on the year at 14th in wRC+, while the Rockies are down amongst the dregs at 26th.  I guess some people still rate offenses by total runs scored - the Rockies shine in that category, assisted by Coors Field as usual.  

The Pirates just got Corey Dickerson back off of the DL, and third-baseman David Freese has specialized in pounding lefties like Freeland (131 wRC+ for his career).  Those two in addition to Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco form a solid group at the top of the Pirates order.  While the Rockies’ lineup does boast one of the best sluggers in baseball in Nolan Arenado and solid hitters in Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon, the rest of the order is pretty bleak.  We like the Pirates’ chances of putting up a bigger number than the Rockies in Coors field on Monday.

With edges on offense and in the pitching matchup, we love being able to take the Pirates as a significant underdog:  we’re making Pittsburgh +128 at BetOnline our MLB pick of the day on Monday. Both Kyle Freeland and the Rockies’ offense are overrated, and we’re going to take advantage of the value while it’s available.

That’ll do it for Monday’s free pick, we appreciate you stopping by.  If you’ve been inspired to go place a wager, make sure you do it at one of our top rated sportsbook choices.

Enjoy the game, and let’s get a win!

Bet the Pirates +128

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