Free MLB Picks and Parlays – Sunday, August 26th, 2018

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We've bet on Chris Archer in all four of his Pittsburgh starts - #5 comes on Sunday

Welcome back to the LazyBets Free MLB Picks column for Sunday, August 26th.   We picked up our second straight win on Saturday, as Jameson Taillon guided the Pirates to a 9-1 victory over the Brewers, and we cashed our +120 bet on the moneyline.

That makes us 17 games over .500 for the season (83-66), and we’re starting to feel some momentum picking up.  Recent trends are leading the oddsmakers to skew the lines in a such a way that they are exploitable, if you’re paying attention and can trust a larger sample size.

We’re sticking with the same NL Central series between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh for Sunday’s pick - we think the oddsmakers are still overrating the Brew Crew, despite their lopsided defeat on Saturday.   Not only that, but one of our recent favorites to back is on the mound for the Buccos.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Archer) at Milwaukee Brewers (Anderson)

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BetOnline*Pirates +12550% on $1000
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Game Time: 2:10 PM EST

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Run Line: Pirates +1.5 (-175)

Moneyline: Pirates +125

Bet the Pirates +125

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Pirates Brewers Pick

We covered the offensive matchup in yesterday’s article - we’ll give a slight edge to Milwaukee’s lineup, but we don’t think it’s quite as significant as the odds have been making it out to be.  Milwaukee has had some hitters over-perform this season (Aguilar, Cain, and Shaw, to name a few), and they still only rank 18th in wRC+.

Meanwhile, the Pirates’ and their unheralded group of hitters rank 17th, one spot ahead of the Brewers.  Gregory Polanco and Francisco Cervelli got on base five times last night after we shouted them out in the article, and we’re hoping they can do it again on Sunday.

They’ll face Milwaukee starter Chase Anderson, who we’ve already bet against 8 times this season for a record of 5-3.  He’s probably been the most lucky pitcher in baseball over the past two seasons, posting a 2.74 ERA in 2017 and a 3.92 ERA in 2018 despite some seriously pedestrian peripheral stats - we think he’s no better than a #5 starter that has been getting by on smoke and mirrors.

Anderson has the 2nd lowest BABIP in baseball amongst qualified starters, at .211.  Chris Archer, the Pirates’ starter on Sunday, has a BABIP of .348.  That dramatic difference has a lot to do with luck, and a lot to do with how incorrect the odds on this matchup are.

We’re bet on Archer in each of his first four starts for the Pirates since joining them at the trade deadline, so clearly we’re fans of his talent.  He still hasn’t given Pittsburgh a dominant start, but we think one should be coming soon. He’s got the perfect profile for the modern game - a high strikeout rate while keeping walks and homers in check.  One of these days, those bloop hits and seeing-eye singles are going to stop falling in - let’s hope that is the case on Sunday.

Pittsburgh’s Chris Archer is in a different stratosphere from Milwaukee’s Chase Anderson.  If Milwaukee had a high-powered offense, maybe the odds being offered on Sunday would make more sense - but they don’t.  Archer should outpitch Anderson, so we’re taking the Pirates at +125 at BetOnline as our free MLB pick of the day.

That’ll do it for this weekend in baseball.  We’ll be with you through the World Series, but we’re getting excited about football.  Check out our homepage for our NFL and NCAA previews and come bet some futures with us.

Don’t forget to consult our top sportsbooks list if you’re looking for a new online book, or just want to take advantage of some deposit bonuses.

Good luck out there, and we’ll see you back here tomorrow.

Bet the Pirates +125

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