Free MLB Picks and Parlays – Tuesday, August 21st, 2018
MLB Picks and Parlays
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Chris Davis and the Orioles are having a rough season in 2018
Welcome back to the LazyBets Free MLB Picks column for Tuesday, August 21st. Atlanta’s Kevin Gausman got scratched from his start on Monday, which was a bummer because we thought we had great value with the Pirates at -110. Bryse Wilson stepped in for Gausman and outdueled Chris Archer for a 1-0 Braves win.
We were set to follow up Monday’s bet with another on the Pirates on Tuesday, but Atlanta’s Julio Teheran was also moved back a day. We’ve been meaning to take a shot against Teheran and his absurdly low BABIP, but that will have to wait… until Wednesday, possibly.
Instead, we’re taking a look at a matchup between the dregs of the AL East, Toronto and Baltimore. The Orioles have found themselves 50 games back of the first place Red Sox (seriously), but somehow we’re still seeing value in betting against them. Let’s get into it.
Baltimore Orioles (Bundy) at Toronto Blue Jays (Gaviglio)
We’ve picked against the Orioles 11 times this season for a 9-2 record, so we’re more than happy to do it again on Tuesday. The oddsmakers to have forgotten how terrible they are - or they believe that Toronto is nearly as bad as Baltimore. We disagree.
In fact, the Blue Jays offense has been surprisingly effective this year - they rank 11th in wRC+ overall, thanks in large part to first baseman Justin Smoak. Smoak looked like a bust of a first round pick through his first seven big league seasons, but then he exploded for a career year in 2017 and has followed it up with a similar season in 2018 (.257/.363/.465). While the Jays have other solid hitters in Curtis Granderson and Kendrys Morales surrounding him in the lineup, Smoak will be the best hitter in the ballpark on Tuesday.
Blue Jays starter Sam Gaviglio will face the dismal Baltimore offense on Tuesday, and while he’s certainly no ace, we think he’s up to the task. His 2018 ERA of 5.13 is a bit inflated due to a high homer rate, but he doesn’t allow too many fly balls, so we think that should even out for him.
Unlike Gaviglio, the Orioles’ Dylan Bundy projects to continue giving up dingers at an excessive rate. Bundy allows the highest rate of homers in the majors amongst qualified starters, and it’s not close. And also unlike Gaviglio, Bundy has earned that damage through the air, as his 34% groundball rate is 5th lowest amongst those same starters.
Bundy may still be carrying some of the shine from being the #4 overall pick in the 2011 draft, but time is starting to run out on his chances to ever develop into a quality starter. We’re certain that Gaviglio, a fifth rounder from that same draft, is the better pitcher going into Tuesday’s matchup.
With the Orioles sending the most homer prone pitcher in baseball to the mound along with one of the game’s worst offenses, we were pretty surprised to see the odds being offered on Tuesday. The Blue Jays aren’t great, but they’re miles better than Baltimore, and far better than the -140 odds being offered at BetOnline say they are. We’ll take the Jays as our pick of the day for Tuesday.
That’ll do it for Tuesday - let’s just hope that neither of these pitchers are scratched again.
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Bet the Blue Jays -140
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