Free MLB Picks and Parlays – Wednesday, August 8th, 2018
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Chris Archer was shaky in his Pirates debut, but we see him having a lot of success in Pittsburgh going forward
Welcome back to the LazyBets Free MLB Picks column for Wednesday, August 8th. Tuesday’s bet looked like it was in good shape after Bartolo Colon allowed back-to-back homers in the second (one to Nelson Cruz, who we predicted to go yard), but it wasn’t to be - the Rangers took advantage of some shoddy defense by Kyle Seager and hit some homers of their own in an 11-4 Texas win.
This four-game losing streak we’re on is our longest since April, and we’re not looking to set any personal records on Wednesday. Luckily, the lines being offered on the Pirates-Rockies matchup are downright confusing - it looks like a great chance to get off the schnide and get a little bang for our buck on an underdog. Let’s get right into it.
Pittsburgh Pirates (Archer) at Colorado Rockies (Marquez)
We bet on Chris Archer in his Pirates debut last Friday, and he’ll be making his second start for the Buccos on Wednesday against the Rockies. While Pittsburgh got the win in his debut, Archer himself had a shaky start - he allowed 7 hits and 4 walks in only 4 ⅓ innings. We thought the former Rays righty was already being underrated by the oddsmakers, and judging by the lines being offered on Wednesday, they’ve soured on him even more.
As we noted last Friday, Archer has a great combination of skills for the modern game - he strikes out batters at an elite rate, and he avoids giving up too many walks or home runs. That last one - homers - will be key for Wednesday’s game in Coors field, which is still a home run hitters’ paradise despite the best efforts of the humidor.
If Archer can stop getting so unlucky on balls in play (his BABIP is now dead-last in the majors for pitchers with over 90 IP), he should put together some dominant starts for the Pirates. We bet that he closes 2018 strong, and we’re going to grab all the value we can get while he’s still being overlooked.
Normally a pitcher with Colorado righty German Marquez’ profile would be getting underrated by the sportsbooks as well. Marquez has an unsightly 4.70 ERA in 22 starts this season, but the advanced stats say that he’s actually faring pretty well - his 3.64 xFIP is nothing to sneeze at. Steamer projects his rest-of-season FIP at 4.09 - that’s a respectable number for a 23 year-old in the big leagues, but it’s nowhere near Archer’s (3.39). Marquez figures to have far more problems with the free pass and the long ball than Archer, and that’s why we’re so shocked to see him favored in the matchup.
As we mentioned on Monday, Pittsburgh has been average offensively this season, while the Rockies are down in the bottom-five. Of course, the Pirates hitters decided not to show up for Monday’s game (a 2-0 shutout loss), and instead waited until Tuesday to get it going (a 10-2 beatdown win). We’re hoping that some of Tuesday’s momentum carries into Wednesday.
We’re certain that Chris Archer is the better pitcher in the matchup, and the offensive numbers aren’t close either - the Pirates have the better lineup. With that in mind, how in the world is Pittsburgh a +112 underdog at BetOnline? We’re not sure; all we know is that we’re definitely making that gem of a moneyline our MLB bet of the day on Wednesday.
That’ll do it for us; as always, be sure to check out our approved sportsbooks list before you run out to make a deposit, and be sure to take note of those promo codes. Sign-up bonuses are pretty sweet, if you ask us.
Good luck to all you degenerates out there. This time we really mean it - let’s get a win!
Bet the Pirates +112
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