Free MLB Picks and Parlays – Wednesday, August 15th, 2018
MLB Picks and Parlays
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We've bet on Chris Archer in his first two starts as a Pirate, and it has paid off both times
Welcome back to the LazyBets Free MLB Picks column for Wednesday, August 15th. With James Paxton on the mound and Robinson Cano returning to the Mariners’ lineup, we were pretty confident about Tuesday’s bet. Unfortunately for us, Paxton had to exit in the first inning after taking a line drive to his pitching arm, and the Mariners’ offense didn’t pick up the slack in a 3-2 A’s win.
We’ve been on a bit of a cold streak of late, but we’re still 18 games above .500 for the year, and on Wednesday we’ll be betting on a familiar face to get us back on track. Chris Archer will be making his third start for the Pirates on Wednesday afternoon against the Twins, and we like his chances against the young righty Jose Berrios in this interleague matchup. Let’s get into it.
Pittsburgh Pirates (Archer) at Minnesota Twins (Berrios)
We’ve bet on Chris Archer in each of his first two starts with the Pirates, and while Archer himself hasn’t had a real strong showing in Pittsburgh yet, we’ve gone 2-0 on those picks. We believe that the oddsmakers have been underrating Archer since the trade, and that includes Wednesday’s matchup with Jose Berrios and the Twins.
Since a rough start to his big league career in 2016 (8.02 ERA in 14 starts), Berrios has had very solid results over the past two seasons (3.77 ERA in 49 starts), especially for a pitcher under the age of 25. Minnesota likely has him penciled in as the ace of the staff moving forward, and it appears that gamblers have gotten comfortable betting on the young righty.
We’re less bullish on Berrios than most - for one, his 2017 xFIP of 4.51 means that he overachieved quite a bit last season, assisted by a suppressed homer rate. Secondly, his 2018 BABIP and left on base percentage (LOB%) both appear to be unsustainably good. While it does seem that Berrios has a long major league career ahead of him, we think that the hype surrounding the young All-Star has outpaced his actual talent, and that makes him a perfect candidate to wager against.
As we’ve mentioned in previous articles, we think that the Pirates made a brilliant move in acquiring Chris Archer at the deadline. In contrast to Berrios, Archer’s ERA over the past two seasons has undersold his real talent - he’s got a 4.17 ERA over that stretch, but with a 3.55 FIP. Archer is the high-strikeout, low-walk, low-homer type of pitcher that the modern game was built for, and we think it’s only a matter of time before he starts putting together some dominant performances in the National League.
These two offenses leave a lot to be desired (namely, a superstar hitter), but the Pirates have at least managed to hang around league-average (17th in wRC+). The Twins are a little further back at 22nd in baseball, and they traded two solid hitting middle-infielders at the deadline in Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar. While Joe Mauer and Eddie Rosario are decent hitters, their lineup is devoid of any real impact bats. Pittsburgh’s trio of Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson and Josh Bell might be the best three hitters in the ballpark on Wednesday.
While it’s a fairly even offensive matchup, we see the pitching matchup leaning heavily in favor of Archer and the Pirates. With that said, we’re thrilled to take Pittsburgh as a +110 underdog at MyBookie. We think the Pirates should be favored in this one, so needless to say we love the value in that moneyline.
That will do it for our baseball picks today. If you’re a football fan, be sure to check our homepage regularly - we’re rolling out free NCAA and NFL previews daily under our Futures and Props section.
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Thanks as always for reading, and let’s get a win!
Bet the Pirates +110
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