Free MLB Picks and Parlays – Wednesday, August 22nd, 2018

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The Indians' Carlos Carrasco is dominant when healthy

Welcome back to the LazyBets Free MLB Picks column for Wednesday, August 22nd.  The Blue Jays jumped all over Orioles starter Dylan Bundy on Tuesday, winning 8-2 and pushing us to 10-2 on the season when betting against Baltimore.  We hope the oddsmakers will give us the opportunity to do it again soon.

Today we’ll be turning our attention to a far better matchup.  Two true contenders in the American League will be facing off as Boston takes on Cleveland in the third game of a four game set.  While the Indians and Red Sox have been two of the best teams in baseball this season, we think one of them has a massive advantage on Wednesday.  

Cleveland Indians (Carrasco) at Boston Red Sox (Johnson)

Featured Sportsbook Odds

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Online Sportsbook
Sign-Up Bonus
BetOnline*Indians -11750% on $1000
MyBookieIndians -12550% on $1000
BovadaIndians -12450% on $250

Game Time: 7:10 PM EST

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Run Line: Indians -1.5 (+130)

Moneyline: Indians -117

Bet the Indians -117

Deposit Bonus: 50% up to $1000


Indians Red Sox Pick

We bet on both of these teams to win their respective divisions in 2018 (links to our preview articles here and here), and it’s basically a lock that we cash both wagers when the season ends.  The Red Sox have the best record in baseball at 88-38, and they’re leading the Yankees by 9 games in the AL East.  Meanwhile, the Indians have a 14 game lead in the AL Central, dominating the woeful competition in that division like we thought they would.

We’ve yet to pick against either team this entire season.  With the success they’ve been having, that’s probably for the best.  However, we’re breaking that streak on Wednesday - the odds being offered on this matchup overrate the quality of Boston’s starting pitcher, Brian Johnson.

Johnson has bounced between the bullpen and the rotation this year, and there’s a reason for that - he doesn’t profile as anything better than a #5 starter in the big leagues.  His current strikeout and walk rates aren’t great, but Steamer projects them to get even worse as time goes on.  He’s posted a 4.00 ERA in 2018, but that’s basically his ceiling - we’d project something closer to 5.00 for the remainder of his starts.

In stark contrast, Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco is a bonafide ace.  He’s posting a 3.33 ERA over 23 starts this season, and his FIP is even lower at 3.08.  Carrasco occasionally gets overshadowed by the other aces on the Indians staff (Kluber, Bauer), and he has an injury history that has kept him out of award races.  However, when he’s healthy, Carrasco is one of the best and most consistent pitchers in baseball.

Boston has the best offense in baseball, but Cleveland isn’t far behind (5th in wRC+).  While the loss of Edwin Encarnacion to the DL does hurt, the Indians lineup is still full of talented hitters, including their two MVP candidates in Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor.  Lindor in particular improves against lefties (133 wRC+ for his career), so we’d expect him to do some damage against Johnson on Wednesday.

While Boston might have a slight advantage on offense, the pitching mismatch is gigantic.  With that in mind, we love the odds we’re getting to bet on Carlos Carrasco and the Indians: -117 at BetOnline will be our free MLB pick of the day for Wednesday.

Once you lock in your wager on the Tribe, be sure to check out the rest of the content we have for you here at LazyBets.  If you’re a football fan, we’ve got tons of NCAA and NFL previews hitting the homepage over the next few weeks, and our Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet went up today.

If you’re looking for a new place to wager, we strongly recommend checking out our approved sportsbooks list before you make your first deposit.

Best of luck out there, and let’s get the win!

Bet the Indians -117

Deposit Bonus: 50% up to $1000


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