Free MLB Picks and Parlays – Wednesday, August 29th, 2018

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Giants rookie Dereck Rodriguez, son of Hall of Famer Pudge Rodriguez

Welcome back to the LazyBets Free MLB Picks column for Wednesday, August 29th.   The Giants ended up winning a pitcher’s duel on Tuesday with a walk-off hit in the 9th inning that scored the game’s only run.  We’re glad to get the win, but we’re also glad that Clay Buchholz pitched well - we may have to bet against him again soon, while the price is right.

Even though we cashed our bet on Tuesday, it felt weird to root against the Diamondbacks, who are in the middle of a division race that could net us a +530 victory should the Snakes prevail.

We won’t be doing the same on Wednesday.  In the same way that the oddsmakers underrated the edge that Madison Bumgarner had over Clay Buchholz on Tuesday, we think they’re doing the same in the Zack Godley - Dereck Rodriguez matchup.  

Arizona Diamondbacks (Godley) at San Francisco Giants (Rodriguez)

Featured Sportsbook Odds

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Moneyline
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BetOnline*D'Backs -11850% on $1000
MyBookieD'Backs -12550% on $1000
BovadaD'Backs -12050% on $250

Game Time: 10:15 PM EST

Where to Watch:  MLB Network

Run Line: D'Backs -1.5 (+140)

Moneyline: D'Backs -118

Bet the D'Backs -118

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Diamondbacks Giants Pick

We’re rooting for Giants rookie Dereck Rodriguez.  His father, 13-time Gold Glover Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez, is one of our favorite players of all time.  As a Texas kid who fell in love with sports in the ‘90s, Pudge was and still is absolute royalty - alongside Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith, of course.

The son of Pudge is on track to make a name for himself, despite coming out of relative obscurity in his big league debut this season.  Rodriguez has a sparkling 2.30 ERA in his first 86 big league innings, and the oddsmakers seem to have taken notice. While we’ll be rooting for the kid because of his lineage, we think it’s about time to pump the breaks - he isn’t a frontline starter just yet.

In fact, Dereck has gotten quite lucky over his first 13 starts.  Despite ranking 11th worst amongst 144 pitchers in hard contact allowed, he has the lowest homer to fly-ball rate amongst those same pitchers (4.9%).  Even when the ball stays in the park, it’s finding a glove more often than it should - his .247 BABIP is also far lower than it should be.  Mix in a higher-than-expected LOB%, and you can see why we’re calling Rodriguez lucky thus far.

Arizona starter Zack Godley has an ERA that is more than two full points higher than Rodriguez’s (4.59).  Despite that, Godley actually has a lower xFIP:  3.82 to Rodriguez’s 4.07.  Where the young Giants starter has gotten lucky, Godley has not - his .330 BABIP should inevitably decrease.

We covered the offensive matchup on Tuesday, and the 1-0 final score on Tuesday night certainly didn’t change our opinion - these are two below-average offenses, with Arizona holding a slight edge.

Much like Tuesday’s game between these NL West foes, we think the oddsmakers are once again underrating the large advantage in the pitching matchup held by one of these two teams.  It’s Arizona and Zack Godley that are underpriced on Wednesday, so we’ll take them at -118 odds at BetOnline as our free MLB pick of the day.



That’ll do it for our MLB predictions today, but be sure to check out all of our NCAA Football previews - a ton of analysis hit our homepage today, including our pick to win the College Football Playoff.

If you agree with our picks, you might as well take advantage of a deposit bonus at one of our approved sportsbooks to get in on the action.

Good luck out there, and we’ll see you back here tomorrow.

Bet the D'Backs -118

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