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The Rangers' Joey Gallo and Rougned Odor have hit a combined five home runs against the Orioles in the past three games.
Welcome back to the LazyBets Free MLB Picks column for Sunday, August 5th. Our four game win streak was snapped on Saturday, as our bet on young Giants lefty Andrew Suárez did not pay off - he got worked for 8 earned runs in a 9-3 D’Backs win.
It serves us right for betting on the Giants, a team we thought was overrated to start the year, as we laid out in our NL West preview. Speaking of that article, we picked the Diamondbacks as our best bet to win the division at +530, and they just took an outright lead in the West. What a coincidence that I brought it up!
We’re going to try our luck for the second time in the four game series concluding in Arlington on Sunday, where the Rangers have won three straight against the Orioles and will look for the four-game sweep. It’s another potential slugfest like the 17-8 affair that we made our pick of the day on Thursday, and we like the odds on Sunday’s matchup for similar reasons.
Baltimore Orioles (Ramirez) at Texas Rangers (Hutchison)
We thought Friday’s pitching matchup was bad - this one is probably even worse. ZiPS and Steamer projections really do not like Baltimore’s Yefry Ramirez - ZiPS projects his FIP to be 6.03 going forward. That is absurdly bearish, and it’s one of the worst numbers we’ve seen. He gives up lots of walks and homers, and more runs are scored per game this season at Rangers stadium than at any other. What could go wrong on Sunday?
This Baltimore team is in full tank/rebuild mode, and Ramirez is the perfect pitcher for that objective -- a young pitcher who will likely struggle and contribute to losing, but may end up being better for the experience. We like betting against these types of guys when the price is right.
Rangers starter Drew Hutchison is more of a mystery at this point - he’ll be making his first start of the year after starting the season in Philly’s bullpen, then spending time in AAA for the Dodgers, then signing with the Rangers on Saturday. There aren’t many projections available for Hutchison at the moment, but he’s had moderate success the past two years in AAA, and that’s all we need to know - he's extremely unlikely to be worse than Ramirez.
As we covered on Friday, the Rangers don’t have an elite set of hitters, but they look like an All-Star team compared to Baltimore’s unit, ranked dead last by wRC+. Rougned Odor has come alive of late - he and fellow Rangers lefty Joey Gallo have gone deep the last two nights, and Gallo went yard on Thursday as well. We wouldn’t be surprised to see at least one of them do it again on Sunday.
We don’t know why the books think the Orioles are anywhere close to a coin flip on the road with a pitcher like Yefry Ramirez on the mound, but their reasoning doesn’t matter to us. We’re taking Texas -128 at BetOnline as our pick of the day for Sunday. We’re expecting fireworks, and the Rangers have much more capable hitters to light up the scoreboard.
That will do it for Sunday, thanks for stopping by. If you’re looking for a new place to bet, check out our approved sportsbooks list and grab those sign-up bonus codes before you leave.
See you back here tomorrow LazyBets readers - let’s get a win!
Bet the Rangers -128
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