Free MLB Picks – July 10, 2018

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MLB Free Pick Today

Arizona's Patrick Corbin got a much deserved All-Star nod for his work in the first half of 2018.

Welcome back to the LazyBets Free MLB picks column for Tuesday, July 10th.  We took yesterday off as there wasn’t anything on the board that intrigued us, and we don’t just throw out bets that we don’t fully endorse here at LazyBets.   That’s how we’ve made it to 65-48 on the year - not every bet is a winner, but every bet is one that we think provides a good return on investment.

Tuesday’s slate is a different story, as we see at least three games on the board that look like good value.  We’ll toss out the others later in the article, but the game we’ll be focusing on has a line that makes zero sense to us - the far superior team is being made the underdog by the oddsmakers.  Let’s get into it.

Arizona Diamondbacks (Corbin) at Colorado Rockies (Anderson)

Game Time: 8:40 PM EST

Where to Watch:

Run Line: Arizona +1.5 (-182)

Moneyline: Arizona +103

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Cubs Brewers Pick

Arizona’s Patrick Corbin was rightly named to his second All-Star game when the rosters were announced last night.  Corbin has been instrumental in the D’Backs success this year, as he currently ranks fourth in the NL in pitching WAR, five spots above his more heralded teammate Zack Greinke.   As somebody who wagered on the D’Backs to win the NL West this year, we're grateful that Corbin could provide consistent production while others in the pitching staff went down with injury and the offense struggled mightily through the month of May.

Looking forward, Corbin probably won’t maintain his exceptional 11.25 strikeouts per nine rate, but as long as it stays above 9 or so, Corbin should be able to continue providing solid production for the D’Backs.  If he can maintain that whiff rate, look out - Corbin could find himself in the middle of the Cy Young race and the D’Backs should comfortably find themselves in the playoffs.

Corbin will face Colorado lefty Tyler Anderson on Tuesday night.  While Anderson has had a solid start (6-3, 3.90 ERA), the projections see his ERA heading up into the fours before the year is over.  He’s a league average pitcher, which means he isn't awful, but he’s demonstrably worse in just about every pitching category than Patrick Corbin, and should find his ERA ending up a full-point worse than Corbin’s at season’s end.

When considering the mismatch on the mound, it’s clear when looking at Tuesday’s odds that the oddsmakers and the betting public aren’t aware the Colorado has been the third worst offense in baseball by wRC+.  It’s a classic mistake by those that don’t understand how park effects can affect statistics - the Rockies rank 7th in total runs, but that’s because they play in the most run-friendly park in the majors.  While the Diamondbacks offense hasn’t been great either (24th in wRC+), they’ve recently gotten their second best hitter back from the DL in A.J. Pollock, and he traditionally punishes left handed pitching.  Arizona will have the better offense on Tuesday, we’ll be looking for Pollock in particular to do some damage against the lefty Anderson.

With Arizona having massive edge in the pitching matchup and Colorado sporting one of the worst offenses in baseball, one would assume that you’d have to take Arizona as the heavily favored team on the moneyline.  Well, not so fast my friend. The D’Backs are an underdog (!?) on Tuesday at +103 over at BetOnline.  You should run, not walk, to go make that bet - we don’t see value like this creep up very often.

We said we would throw out the other picks we liked - we’re also a fan of the Angels at -146 and the Cubs -103 on Tuesday.  If you’re feeling extra degenerate, throw all three in a parlay.  Whatever you do though, do not miss out on that Arizona moneyline, it’s truly one of our favorites of the year.

Good luck everybody out there, and be sure to check out our free World Cup selections for the first semifinal matchup between France and Belgium.  Our soccer picks have been on the money as of late, so you’ll want to check out our analysis before placing your wagers.

As always, let’s get a win!

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