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J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts have been one of the best offensive duos in baseball this season
Welcome back to the LazyBets Free MLB Picks column for Sunday, July 29th. We took one on the chin on Saturday - the Halos pounded the Mariners 11-5, and Angels starter Jaime Barria posted a quality start We still think he’s due for some backwards regression - we may try betting against him again sometime soon, despite our fortunes on Saturday.
For Sunday’s pick we’ll be turning to back to one of our trusted favorites this year - the major league leading Red Sox. The oddsmakers apparently don’t trust their newest starting pitcher as much as we do - we think the line on this game is off by 30 points or more. Let’s get into it.
Minnesota Twins (Berrios) at Boston Red Sox (Eovaldi)
Boston acquired Tampa Bay starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi on Tuesday, and he’ll make his Red Sox debut in Boston on Sunday. As someone with a preseason bet on the Red Sox at +150 to win the AL East, I approve of this maneuver. With Eduardo Rodriguez on the DL, this should shore up the middle of the Red Sox rotation for the time being - the less Brian Johnson and Steven Wright, the better.
Eovaldi has a wacky set of peripheral stats this season - he has the best walk rate of his career by far (1.26 BB/9), but he’s giving up more home runs than ever before (1.74 HR/9). Once the dust settles on his season (only 10 GS so far), his numbers should look good for the Sox - his 3.51 xFIP is very encouraging, and Steamer's rest-of-season projections see him finishing the season strong.
The lines being offered on Sunday’s game suggest that the Twins’ Jose Berrios is the superior pitcher. We disagree - while his ERA is lower than Eovaldi’s (3.48 to 4.26), his projected FIP is higher. Berrios has simply been getting lucky - his walk rate, BABIP and LOB% are all set to regress. He’s reached overrated status by the average gambler, and we see value in betting against him here.
There's no question that this is an offensive mismatch - Boston’s in the upper echelon of offensive teams in the sport, while Minnesota is hanging around league average (17th). The Red Sox have the major league leader in home runs (J.D. Martinez, 31), another guy who’s giving Mike Trout a run for his money in the MVP race - in a career year for the GOAT, no less (Mookie Betts), and another three guys who are hitting well above league average (Benintendi, Bogaerts and Moreland).
Meanwhile, the Twins just traded their second best player by WAR in Eduardo Escobar. Eddie Rosario has been solid and Joe Mauer is still doing his thing, but these two lineups are leagues apart in terms of talent. That’s what makes Saturday’s line so surprising.
The edge in the starting pitching matchup and the clear-cut advantage on the offensive side makes us pretty baffled at the cheap price to wager on the superior Red Sox team: -145 at BetOnline is what we’re going with. The line is moving as we type this, so you may want to head over there soon to place your bets.
That’ll do it for Sunday’s pick, we hope you enjoy the rest of your weekend. Again, if you’re looking for a new place to bet on sports, check out our LazyBets Approved Sportsbooks list - we did the research so you don’t have to.
Good luck, degens. Let’s get a win.
Bet the Red Sox -145
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