Free MLB Picks – July 4, 2018

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MLB Free Pick Today

Happy 4th of July! Pictured right: one of America's greatest athletes, the Angels' Mike Trout

Welcome back to the LazyBets Free MLB picks column for Wednesday, July 4th.  It’s Independence Day, and what’s more patriotic than gambling on America’s pastime?  Nothing, that’s what. Place some bets, fire up the grill and enjoy the great game of baseball.

Our pick for you today follows similar logic to yesterday’s, so we’re gonna make this quick.  We’re sticking with the series in Seattle, despite not getting the result we wanted.  We still love the value we’re getting to fade the overachieving Mariners, and we’re confident that Mike Trout and the Angels offense can provide the fireworks we need.

Los Angeles Angels (Richards) at Seattle Mariners (Leake)

Game Time: 4:10 PM EST

Where to Watch:

Run Line: Los Angeles +1.5 (-210)

Moneyline: Los Angeles +101

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Angels Mariners Pick

While we viewed Tuesday’s Heaney-LeBlanc matchup as a favorable one for the Angels, Wednesday’s matchup is even more lopsided.  Garrett Richards will return to the Angels after yet another absence due to injury, and while all of the missed time has certainly cut into his overall value, when he’s on the mound he’s borderline elite.  He has an exceptional strikeout rate (10.27 per nine) that should allow him to maintain a solid mid-threes ERA for as long as he’s healthy.  

Mike Leake has been consistently lackluster since his debut in 2010 for the Reds.  His strikeout rate is on the other end of the spectrum when compared to Richards, as Leake’s 5.52 strikeouts per nine is 4th lowest amongst qualified starters this season.  That kind of strikeout rate limits the upside of any of Leake’s start - you can bet that Angels hitters are going to be making contact early and often against him.

We covered the offensive matchup yesterday - we think the Angels have the better offense, and that was before we knew Shohei Ohtani and his .907 OPS were returning to the lineup.  The Mariners offense has been over-performing, and that’s helping us get the price we’re seeing in today’s moneyline.  

The Angels are getting some serious talent back from injury in Richards and Ohtani, and they’ve got one of the great American athletes in the lineup in Trout.  The Mariners have been ridiculously lucky this year and are being seriously overrated by the general public and the oddsmakers.  We’re going to grab the better team in Los Angeles at +101 at BetOnline, then sit back and enjoy the fireworks.  We hope that you do the same.

Have a great 4th y’all, we’ll catch you tomorrow.  

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