Free MLB Picks – July 5, 2018

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MLB Free Pick Today

The Diamondbacks' A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt will look to get the D'Backs offense on track against the Padres on Thursday.

Welcome back to the LazyBets Free MLB picks column for Thursday, July 5th.   We hope you enjoyed the 4th of July - we sure did, thanks to some barbecue ribs and a 7-4 Angels victory that cashed in yesterday’s pick.  

Today we’ve got a good one for you - we’ll be taking a look at a matchup that we see as a far bigger mismatch that the oddsmakers do.   The last place San Diego Padres are heading to the desert to face the first place Arizona Diamondbacks, and it should be an excellent opportunity for the team we picked to win the NL West to extend their division lead.  Let’s get into it.

San Diego Padres (Lauer) at Arizona Diamondbacks (Miller)

Game Time: 9:40 PM EST

Where to Watch:

Run Line: Arizona -1.5 (+139)

Moneyline: Arizona -140

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Diamondbacks Padres Pick

Arizona’s Shelby Miller has had a rough couple of starts since returning from the DL, but he’s shown signs of dominance and should be able to put together a quality start soon.   He’s been battered to the tune of 11 runs in his first 8.2 innings, but that’s largely due to a ridiculously high BABIP (.444) and three homers that he’s given up in that span. Miller hasn’t been particularly homer prone in his career, and that BABIP is obviously unsustainably high.  

Meanwhile, he’s struck out a remarkable 11 batters over that same span, which leads us to believe that Miller’s stuff is there - if he can get a bit luckier on the balls that end up in play, Miller should be able to at least get his ERA to replacement level this season.

San Diego’s rookie starter Eric Lauer may not be able to do the same - his projected stats are all worse than Miller’s, and he’s posted an unimpressive 5.08 ERA over his first 13 starts this season.  His strikeout-to-walk rate is currently hovering under 2, always a dangerous sign, and he’s been homer prone in his short career so far (1.45 per nine) while making about half of his starts in pitcher-friendly Petco Park.  The Padres should continue giving Lauer a look this year since they are basically out of contention, but it would not be wise to expect a ton of success from him.

This appears to be a fairly even matchup offensively when looking at the offensive ranks, but we expect the Diamondbacks to start climbing with the recent return of A.J. Pollock and resurgence of slow-starter Paul Goldschmidt.  Meanwhile, the Padres should remain toward the bottom in most offensive categories - outside of Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers, there’s just not much above-average talent in the Dads’ lineup, and even those two aren’t much to get excited about.

With Shelby Miller primed to have a solid outing, the Padres offense should be just what the doctor ordered.  We see the Diamondbacks offense having no problem scoring runs against Eric Lauer, so we’re happy to take Arizona at only -140 over at BetOnline as our best bet of the day.

Good luck to all of you LazyBets readers out there.  Be sure to check back tomorrow for yet another free MLB pick, and be sure to check out our free World Cup selections for the quarterfinal matchups.

As always, let’s get a win!

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