Free MLB Picks – June 24, 2018

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MLB Free Pick Today

Brewers starter Jhoulys Chacin has had a nice start to his 2018 season, but we're not convinced it's going to last.

Welcome back to the LazyBets Free MLB picks column for Sunday, June 24th.  The Cardinals squeaked out a win on Saturday on the back of two Yadier Molina homers, and we got a win with our free pick of the day.  Thanks to Yadi, we’re now 58-40 on the year and 6-2 in our last eight selections.

We’re sticking with the Cardinals-Brewers series for today’s free pick; we called yesterday’s line one of our favorites of the year, and today’s might even be better.  Let’s get right into it.

St. Louis Cardinals (Weaver) at Milwaukee Brewers (Chacin)

Game Time: 2:10 PM EST

Where to Watch:

Run Line: St. Louis +1.5 (-183)

Moneyline: St. Louis +121

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Cardinals Brewers Pick

The Brewers have become one of our most commonly wagered against teams, largely because we think their starting pitching has been overachieving and should start regressing as the year goes along.  We’ve already bet against starter Chase Anderson seven times, but our new favorite target might just be today’s starter, Jhoulys Chacin.

Chacin has been having a very solid year at first blush - he’s 6-2 with a 3.18 ERA in his first 16 starts for the Brew Crew.  However, all the typical signs for regression are there - his strikeout to walk rate is below two, his homer rate and BABIP are unsustainably low and his left on base percentage is higher than his career rate.  While his production so far has to make Brewers fans happy, we believe that he’s a below average pitcher that has simply been getting lucky. We’re ready to profit off of his inevitable decline.

On the opposite side of the coin, young Cardinals righty Luke Weaver should have no trouble improving upon his 4.69 ERA as the year goes along.   He’s shown the potential for great swing-and-miss stuff in the past (10.74 K/9 in 2017), but it hasn’t quite been there this year (7.78 K/9 in 2018).  Projections see him improving upon that 2018 number en route to a productive remainder of the season for the Cards.  We see him as a far superior pitcher to Chacin, no matter what their ERAs in 2018 might suggest.

As we discussed yesterday, this offensive matchup is a dead heat in terms of the current wRC+ rankings, but we’d bet on the Cardinals finishing as a better offense when all is said and done.  We certainly don’t expect another two homers from Yadier Molina today, but we think that Cardinals’ outfielders Marcell Ozuna and Dexter Fowler have left a lot of production on the table this season and will hopefully show signs of improvement today.

While we have no doubt that Luke Weaver is a better pitcher than Jhoulys Chacin going forward, the oddsmakers and the public seem to have been fooled by their early season ERAs.  BetOnline is offering the Cardinals at +121 - we think they should be EVEN at best, so we’re obviously going with them as our free pick of the day.

Good luck everybody, let’s get a win!

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