Free MLB Picks – June 30, 2018

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MLB Free Pick Today

The Angels' Tyler Skaggs is having a breakout season, and will be facing one of the worst offenses in baseball today

Welcome back to the LazyBets Free MLB picks column for Saturday, June 30th.  Yesterday’s pick didn’t go so well, as the Yankees hopped all over our guy E-Rod, and CC Sabathia made us look silly for thinking that age would catch up to him soon.  We still think he’s due for a decline soon, but it certainly didn’t happen yesterday - called him “masterful” in the 8-1 Yankees win.

We’ve cooled off a bit from our hot stretch, but we’ve got a pick today that we think can get us right back on track.  With the World Cup going on and NBA free agency impeding, we’re going to make this a quick one - let’s get right into it.

Los Angeles Angels (Skaggs) at Baltimore Orioles (Cashner)

Game Time: 4:05 PM EST

Where to Watch:

Run Line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+103)

Moneyline: Los Angeles -145

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Angels Orioles Pick

It might not be too soon to call 2018 a breakout year for Angels’ lefty Tyler Skaggs - he’s posting a 2.69 ERA over his first 15 starts this season, easily the best of his career, and he’s on pace to pitch far more innings than his career high 113 in 2014.   While his rest of season projections don’t see him finishing quite as well as he’s started - his RoS projected FIP is 3.96 - the increase to his strikeout rate (9.72 K/9) has definitely made us more bullish on Skaggs going forward.

He’ll be facing the Orioles today in Baltimore, and facing off against righty Andrew Cashner, who is trending in the opposite direction of Skaggs.  After a dreadful 2016 season (5.25 ERA), he somehow posted a solid season in 2017 (3.40 ERA), but the underlying stats showed he was very lucky to do so.  His ERA has jumped up this season to 4.70, and that number could still be heading further north - Cashner’s strikeout to walk rate of 1.76 is well below average, and bordering on disaster.  He also gives up an above average number of homers (1.53 HR/9), and today he’ll be facing the team with the third most homers this season in the Angels.

When we picked the Angels as our best bet to win the AL West, it was because of two factors: we thought the offense was much improved (21st in 2017), and that the pitching staff would be healthier.  We were dead wrong about the pitching staff - they’ve already lost Ohtani, Richards, Shoemaker, Tropeano and others to extended stays on the DL.  However, the offense has delivered, as they’re currently 6th in baseball on the back of a vintage Mike Trout season (.321/.462/.648, 13 SB).  Meanwhile, the Orioles are down in the cellar of the offensive ranks at 29th - outside of Manny Machado, this offense just does not have much talent.

With such a heavy mismatch, we expected the line to exceedingly favor the Angels.  However, -145 is much better than we expected, and we’re very pleased with the opportunity to bet against the lowly Orioles at such a discounted price.  We’re going with Skaggs and the Halos as our pick of the day for Saturday.

We hope you’re enjoying the World Cup, and we hope you jumped on our juicy parlay we gave out this morning - we’ve got a chance at a 4/1 payout at the time of this writing.

Good luck out there everybody - let’s get a win!

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