MLB Free Picks – June 2, 2018

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MLB Free Picks Today:

Welcome back to the LazyBets Free MLB Picks column.  We took an L in yesterday’s column, as Chris Sale was uncharacteristically hittable in a 7-3 Astros win.  We had a bad feeling about that one once Mookie Betts was declared out - we thought he’d be back, but instead he’s gone on the 10-day DL.  He’s hoping to return the first day he’s eligible - we sure hope so, as the race between the Red Sox and Yankees couldn’t be closer and we’ve got our money on Boston.

Today we’re going back to the well by wagering on another one of our favorite pitchers.  He’s facing the worst team in the National League, and we don’t think the moneyline reflects just how big of a mismatch it is.  Let’s get into it.

Miami Marlins (Smith) at Arizona Diamondbacks (Greinke)

Game Time: 10:10 PM EST

Where to Watch: MLB Network, MLB.tv

Run Line: Arizona -1.5 (+122)

Moneyline: Arizona Diamondbacks -160

Bet the Diamondbacks -160

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Diamondbacks Marlins Pick

To say that we’re high on the Diamondbacks might be an understatement - we’ve already wagered on them 13 times this year, far more than any other club (ed. note: Not true, upon further review. Still a lot, though) .  We’re a healthy 9-4 on those wagers despite the D’Backs having a horrendous May - in Fangraphs writer Jeff Sullivan’s words, they were impossibly bad.  Despite their terrible May, they still remain only a half game back of the Rockies in the NL West, although the Dodgers have made up quite a bit of ground.  The +530 odds we took on the D’Backs to win the NL West is still looking nice, as they currently sit at +225 at BetOnline, but we think that they need to start putting together some series wins.  They’ve got a great chance to lock one up today in their second game of a three game set with the Marlins.

Miami’s Caleb Smith has been far and away the best starter on the Marlins this season… which isn’t saying much, seeing as how the Marlins starters rank 4th worst in the MLB in xFIP.   Smith has been sturdy though, posting a 3.51 ERA over his first 56.1 innings this season.   He’s the kind of pitcher that’s going to miss a lot of bats, for better or worse - his 11.02 K/9 is fantastic, but his 4.15 BB/9 is dangerously high.  The walks haven’t hurt him so far, but we’re betting that they will - the projections see his strikeout rate coming down a bit, which may end up tipping the scales a bit too far to maintain his current level of production.  

The Diamondbacks will send their big money starter Zack Greinke to the mound today, and unlike Caleb Smith, the projections see him maintaining his 3.65 ERA throughout the remainder of the season.  We’ve already bet on Greinke 3 times this season - go check out our new archives page for more of our thoughts on him and the rest of the league.  Needless to say, we trust Greinke, and especially so when facing this Marlins offense.

Miami’s offense ranks dead last in baseball, and we’re not surprised - the glorious (?) home run sculpture has been far more dormant than last year after Miami traded away it’s four best hitters this offseason.  The Diamondbacks offense is near the bottom as well, but as we’ve mentioned in previous columns, we think they can get it together and finish around league average if Paul Goldschmidt eventually hits like he should and Jake Lamb and AJ Pollock can bounce back from early season injuries.

We feel very comfortable taking the D’Backs at -160 with Greinke on the mound against the floundering Marlins, so we’re making it our free pick of the day - we recommend that you grab that sweet deposit bonus over at BetOnline and join in the fun we’ve been having this season.

Good luck out there, and let’s get a win!

Bet the D'Backs (-160)

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