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Welcome back to our MLB Free Picks column. Our bet on the Cubs yesterday fell just short, as Kris Bryant left the bases loaded in the ninth in a 6-5 Braves victory. Our faith in Cubs’ starter Jose Quintana didn’t pay off - he got tagged for nine hits, three walks and six earned runs in 4.2 innings. We still think Quintana will get it together soon, but he’s wearing our patience thin.
We weren’t too upset about it though, as the big news of the day around here was the Supreme Court ruling that states will be able to legalize sports gambling. This is a huge win for the sports gambling community, which includes us here at LazyBets. All the ramifications of that ruling are yet to be determined, as states will have to pass legislature before we’re able to actually bet domestically, but you can be sure that we’ll be bringing you updates as it all unfolds.
For the time being, we have one MLB pick we love today - let’s get into it.
Philadelphia Phillies (Pivetta) -112 at Baltimore Orioles (Cashner)
If you’ve been following along this season, you know that we love the Phillies - we took them to win the NL East at 14-1 odds in the preseason. You may also remember that we’ve had a lot of success betting against the Orioles this year, including betting all three games of an Angels sweep of the O’s a few weeks back. We’re happy to see these two face off, and we’re even happier about the uneven pitching matchup today.
Andrew Cashner was once a solid, top-of-the-rotation starter for the Padres, where he posted a 2.87 ERA over nearly 300 innings in 2013 and 2014. However, that pitcher is now gone, and what we have is a far below average starter who doesn’t strike out enough batters, walks too many and allows too many homers. His ERA currently sits at 4.84 through 8 starts for the Orioles, but Steamer projections see his ERA inflating even further. The Orioles gave him a two year deal this offseason, and part of me wonders if that was done just so Cashner could just eat innings and help them tank. At 13-28, they’re doing a great job of it so far.
While Cashner is bad, the Phillies’ starter Nick Pivetta is just average, which represents a nice advantage in today’s game. Pivetta has actually outperformed his ERA this year, as he’s kept walks and homers in check but has gotten a bit unlucky with balls in play - his BABIP is very high at .330, despite having the 4th lowest hard hit ball rate amongst pitchers with at least 30 IP this year. While Pivetta may eventually succumb to more walks and homers, he should end the year in the mid 4s in ERA. Nothing special, but a hell of a lot better than Cashner.
The edge on offense is obvious - the Orioles don’t have much talent in the lineup, other than Manny Machado. The Phillies rank 12th in offense by wRC+ and the Orioles are down near the bottom at 24th, which feels about right based on the talent in each lineup. Given the huge advantage today, the moneyline of Phillies -112 at BetOnline.ag feels like an absolute steal. Just because the Orioles don’t want to win this year doesn’t mean you shouldn’t either - go grab the Phils and thank me later.
Bet the Phillies -112
BetOnline.ag hooks you up with a 50% DEPOSIT BONUS!
Despite our MLB loss yesterday, it was still a great day between the Supreme Court ruling and the NBA’s Western Conference Finals getting started. His us up @Lazy_Bets to let us know how you’re feeling about the momentous ruling yesterday.
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Let’s get a win!
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