MLB Free Picks – May 23, 2018

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MLB Free Pick

Paul Goldschmidt and the Diamondbacks offense will look to get on track against the Brewers today

Free Daily MLB Picks - May 23rd

Welcome back to our MLB Free Picks column.  It was a rough first inning for Garrett Richards last night, allowing all five runs the Blue Jays would need to win 5-3 and lose us our best bet of the day.  To be fair to Richards, he only allowed one earned run, as the other four runs were scored after Chris Young couldn’t make a pretty routine running catch.  Who knows what happens if Young catches that ball, but such is life when gambling on baseball.

We’re back at it again today with another pick for you all.  It’s an early game, so shoutout to all of you LazyBets readers who make our site part of your morning routine - this one’s for you.

Arizona Diamondbacks (Godley) at Milwaukee Brewers (Suter)

Game Time: Wednesday 1:10 EST

Where to Watch:

Run Line: Arizona +1.5 (-215)

Moneyline: Arizona +100

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Diamondbacks Brewers Pick

We bet on the first game of this D’Backs-Brewers series and lost when Zack Greinke allowed three homers and was defeated by our least favorite pitcher this year, Chase Anderson.  The Brewers also won a close one last night, as the D’Backs managed to walk seven times but never reach home plate in a 1-0 victory for Milwaukee.   With the win, the Brewers became the first NL team to 30 wins this year with a winning percentage second to only the also-surprising Braves.  In my mind, the fact that Milwaukee and Atlanta are leading the NL in wins tells you more about the fact that we’re still very early in the season, rather than the new-found strength of these ballclubs.  However, some may be starting to believe that the Brew Crew are one of the best teams in the NL. This works in our favor, as the lines will start to creep in the right direction for us as we fade their early season success and bet on teams we actually believe in, like the Diamondbacks.

Milwaukee’s starter today, Brent Suter, is a fifth starter type of pitcher who will make spot appearances out of the bullpen when needed.   That’s a role perfectly suited for Suter, as his stats are not terrible, but they certainly aren’t remarkable either.  His career strikeout rate of 6.85 per nine suggests that he’s not going to miss a ton of bats, and his career ground ball rate of 41.1% suggest that he’s not exactly trying to induce weak contact either.  I’m not going to go on much longer about Suter, because it might put me to sleep - we’ll wrap it up by saying that while Suter is not terrible by any means, he’s certainly not putting the fear of God into any hitters, and should be the right kind of pitcher to get the D’Backs offense going.

Meanwhile, Arizona starter Zack Godley has far more electric stuff - his strikeout rate of 8.43 per nine is solid and could increase as the season goes along - his K/9 last year was 9.58.  Godley’s unpredictability does cost him in an increased number of walks (3.33 BB/9 for his career), but he avoids homers and fly balls at a much better rate than most, including Suter.

Arizona’s offense has been hurting them this year - they’re down at 27th in baseball in wRC+.   However, the return of Jake Lamb off of the DL and the inevitable resurgence of Paul Goldschmidt (still slugging under .400) should result in a climb up the rankings.  We’ll be happy to buy low on this offense while we can, as we think they’re much closer to league average than they currently are rated.

Our trust in the D’Backs (our best bet to win the NL West) is not wavering after a minor slump, and we’re certainly not buying into the Brewers hype after a hot start.  There’s no way that we would’ve been able to get this matchup at EVEN odds earlier this season, and we don’t think it will last much longer either.  Grab the D’Backs at +100 at BetOnline and join us in fading the overrated Brew Crew.

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