2018 Preakness Preview

Preakness Free Pick

We’re trying something new today and writing about the Preakness Stakes.  We don’t normally write about horse racing, but we thought we might give it a run today given that Betonline.ag is offering a boost to their 50% sportsbook bonus and reacebook deposit limits for this.  That includes the racebook.  Betonline.ag’s new bonus is now $1000 (Just use the code BOL1000 when depositing) for just one category which is almost 4x their normal amount.  If you deposit to the Casino, there’s a separate bonus you can claim there too.

All that makes this a great opportunity to capitalize not only on a top sportsbook with a better than normal deposit bonus, but also on a very fun event.  There’s something about the Preakness that is different than other horse races.  This course at Pimlico at this time of the year can be challenging.  It’s the gritty win in the triple crown setup that is needed to become legend.

The weather could be a major factor today as it often is at Pimlico which is in Baltimore, Maryland.  A horse had to be euthanized yesterday after breaking a leg at the course.  That was three years ago.  That has led to a lot of discussion as to whether the Preakness should be kept at Pimlico.

Here is what I can tell you about my odds with racing.  I grew up in San Diego, so I grew up on Ponies at Del Mar.  My bets there were small, but I normally did o.k. using some overall research.  I look for statistical value, no matter what the race.  Sometimes it really pays off.

One bet comes to mind that exemplifies the use of value in betting races for me historically.  Though not horses, The Daytona 500 was rolling around and I had nothing to do.  I had torn my hamstring so I was stuck on a couch.  I hate Nascar, absolutely hate it, but I decided I was going to do some research and find the value. 

Jimmie Johnson was 15/1 in the 2013 Daytona 500 and after doing a bunch of fact checking, I ended up deciding I wanted to take a punt.  My gut helped me make the decision.  At that point in my life I was selling Jimmy Johnson Chevrolet in San Diego their office supplies with Staples, or I was at least trying to.  I laid a solid $300 on the race which was big for a Staples sales rep.  I kept that bank roll going for a long time.

Let’s see if we can boost the bankroll again with a gutshot based on some research.

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2018 Preakness Stakes

Time: Scheduled for 6:48 PM EST, (This almost always slides later, especially with rain)

Location: Pimlico Race Course – Baltimore, Maryland

TV: NBC

Streaming: Pimlico Track Website, Fubo.tv

Race Purse: $2 million guaranteed will be taken home in this race.

The Pimlico track is shorter than that of the one used at Churchhill downs for the Kentucky Derby.  The Pimblico track is just 9.5 furlongs as opposed to the 10 furlongs in the Kentucky Derby.  The record at the track was set by Secretariat at 1:53:17 which is absolutely blistering.  Last years winner was only at 1:55:98.  I never got to see Secretariat, but I’d imagine that he was pretty incredible.

Justify is still unbeaten and was untouched in race 1 of the triple crown.  At two-and-a-half-lengths, he crushed the competition at the Kentucky Derby.  A shorter track probably helps his odds here.  At 1-2, he doesn’t provide a ton of value to the betting public here, but you get why he’s favored.

1) Quip

Odds: 12-1 on Betonline.ag

Quip is owned by the same owners of Justify and at 12-1 is an interesting pick.  He sat out the Kentucky Derby in preparation of the Preakness despite winning the Tampa Bay Derby to qualify for the race.  He finished second in the Arkansas Derby, but the winner of that race finished second-to-last in the first leg of the Tripple Crown. 

Quip is ridden by Florent Geroux who boasts over 11.5 in total earnings in his career with 83 first place finishes.  He’s never won a Tripple Crown Race, but he did take home the richest race in the world last year in the $16 Million Pegasus World Cup.  He did it riding Gun Runner, the 2017 Horse of the Year.

 Quip is an interesting pick here but has a difficult position in the #1 post where only one horse has won in 28 starts.  That was American Pharoah in 2015.

2) Lone Sailor

Odds: 15-1 on Betonline.ag

Lone Sailor had a disappointing finish to the Kentucky Derby, but he is not a stranger to wetter tracks which could make him an interesting pick in this race.  Most pundits seem to think he’s due for a rebound and that his Kentucky Derby was an underwhelming one.  He got bottled up on the rail and was never able to break out, something many writers attribute to his youth.

What makes Lone Sailor a wild card here is the fact that he picked up Irad Ortiz Jr. as his new jockey.  He’s one of the hottest names in horse racing right now.  Having picked up Jockey of the Week for his performances from April 16 – 22, he is one of the hotter jockeys in the game right now which makes Lone Sailor an intriguing value choice. 

No horse has won out of the 2 position in the last 28 years.

Lean: Lone Sailor to Show

3) Sporting Chance

30-1 on Betonline.ag

Sporting Chance had a decent day at the Kentucky Derby but finished just outside of the top 4.  Pundits seem to think this horse is a bit all over the place.  There is greatness here to this horse, but there is also fundamental flaw.  Much like mal-behaved NBA stars, Sporting Chance seems to be a mental case.  When he gets it right though, look out.

Sporting Chance is ridden by Luis Contreras who has over 220 career victories.

The 3 horse has 3 victories in the last 28 starts making it an 11% winner.

4) Diamond King

30-1 on Betonline.ag

Diamond King is up against it here, but he does have decent positioning and owners who have been here before.  They won the 2005 Preakness and Belmont stakes with Afleet Alex, but this is a much different field that has Justify in it.  Some like Diamond King because he is local and has a stalking running style that makes him faster in races with faster horses.

Diamond King is ridden by jocky Javier Castellano who won last year’s Preakness.  Castellano has over $9M in career earnings but his 2018 has been off to a slow start.

The #4 horse has won 14% of the time in the last 28 years coming through with 4 winners.

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5) Good Magic

3-1 on Betonline.ag

Good Magic came closest to unseating Justify at Churchill Downs but just couldn’t catch up in the end.  Many thought he might scratch this race after the disappointment of the Kentucky Derby, but it looks like he’s back for vengeance and pundits are taking notice.  3-1 is not that far of odds for a very talented horse.  Justify may just be too good to beat and I wouldn’t take Good Magic to win here.

Good Magic is ridden by Jose Ortiz and Chad Brown.  Brown trained Cloud Computing, the 2017 Preakness winner.  Jose Ortiz had a great 2017 but has had a rough start to the 2017 campaign.

The #5 horse has won 4% of the time with 1 win in the last 28 years.

6) Tenfold

20-1 on Betonline.ag

The word for Tenfold is young, perhaps too young.  This colt has had a brief career over which he has not gotten too much wrong.  There’s a lot to like, but maturity will be a factor here.

Ricardo Santana Jr. takes charge of Tenfold in this race.  He has a 22% win percentage and is one of the most talented young jockies in the world.  He hails from Panama.

The 6 horse wins this race a lot, and that’s something to be noted.  There’s something about a young jockey and a young horse.  The 6 horse has won 6 times in 28 races making them the most likely to win at 21%.

Big bet here:  I’m throwing 1 Unit down on Tenfold at 20-1 to win the Preakness.  I don’t expect it to hit, but my gut is telling me something here and 1 unit isn’t much to lose on a race.

7) Justify

1-2 on Betonline.ag

This horse is dominant.  It’s 4-0 in all starts and has blown everyone off the map.  The horse is a Bob Baffert horse which is a massive deal here.  Baffert is 4-0 with his horses in the Preakness when he’s won the Kentucky Derby.  At 1-2, everyone thinks Justify will have a crack at the triple crown.  It’s not just the superior pedigree and performance of the horse, but it’s ownership too.  The problem is experience.  With only 4-0 races, can he be counted on in this big moment?

Mike Smith won the Preakness in 1993 but has been eluded by the thing ever since.  He won the Kentucky Derby in 2005 and jus a few weeks ago.  He’s also won the Belmont Stakes in 2010 and 2013.

The 7 horse wins this race 18% of the time.  There’s a reason Justify is such an overwhelming favorite.

8) Bravazo

20-1 on Betonline.ag

Bravazo finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby despite being the 3rd biggest underdog in the entire the field.  There’s a lot of confidence boost that comes with that.  If this track gets messy and things get truly ugly out there, Bravazo and anyone else in the field has a chance.

Luis Saez takes charge of Bravazo which should help the horse quite a bit.  Luis Contreras was not an idea jockey for the situation.  He takes over Sporting Chance.  Dwayne Lukas trains the horse and is no stranger to winning.

Lean: Bravazo to Show

The Pimlico track is shorter than that of the one used at Churchhill downs for the Kentucky Derby.  The Pimblico track is just 9.5 furlongs as opposed to the 10 furlongs in the Kentucky Derby.  The record at the track was set by Secretariat at 1:53:17 which is absolutely blistering.  Last years winner was only at 1:55:98.  I never got to see Secretariat, but I’d imagine that he was pretty incredible.

Justify is still unbeaten and was untouched in race 1 of the triple crown.  At two-and-a-half-lengths, he crushed the competition at the Kentucky Derby.  A shorter track probably helps his odds here.  At 1-2, he doesn’t provide a ton of value to the betting public here, but you get why he’s favored.

Hopefully this helps you understand somewhat what’s going on in the race.  There are plenty of articles out there providing deeper profile of the jockeys and horses.  If you need a sportsbook or racebook, betonline.ag is a great choice today but we also have other top sportsbook options here.

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