NBA Draft Lottery 2018- #1 Pick Odds

2018 NBA Draft Lottery: Percentage Odds:

The 2018 draft lottery is upon us.  There's no more fun time of the year for terrible basketball teams.  Tonight, hope is renewed for 14 teams in the NBA (and enhanced for others like the Celtics, Cavaliers, and 76ers).  Does your team have a chance at selecting #1?  It turns out that 14 teams statistically do.  Read further to see where your team is slated.

Phoenix Suns:

Likely Draft Slot: #1

Odds of Securing #1: 25%

Odds of Securing Top 3: 64%

The Suns are in line for the top pick in the draft in 2018.  With prospects like DeAndre Ayton, Luka Doncic, and Jaren Jackson Jr. available, this will be a great chance for the Suns to add talent for new head coach Igor Kokoskov.  Will it be a new center to take over for the departing Alex Len, or will the Suns recruit someone familiar with Kokoskov’s EuroBasket success?

Memphis Grizzlies:

Likely Draft Slot: #2

Odds of Securing #1: 20%

Odds of Securing Top 3: 56%

The Grizzlies are finally done selling the team and that should help them with securing a more concrete future.  It all starts in the 2018 NBA draft where the Grizzlies have the second best chance in the league of securing the top selection in the draft class.  This is a good chance for the Grizzlies to get younger and add to an expensive core group of Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, and Chandler Parsons.  They’re all aging and who knows if this will be the current Grizzlies roster heading into the 2018-2019 season.

Everyone in the league would like a shot at drafting Deandre Ayton. Will he stay close to U of A by joining the Phoenix Suns come draft day?

Dallas Mavericks:

Likely Draft Slot: #3

Odds of Securing #1: 14%

Odds of Securing Top 3: 43%

Dirk Nowitzki is staring down the barrel of 40 and this will likely be his last go around in the NBA with the Mavericks.  He will have a new pupil on hand.  Jackson will likely be available where the Mavericks draft at #3 and would be a good fit for the Mavericks here.

Atlanta Hawks:

Likely Draft Slot: #4

Odds of Securing #1: 14%

Odds of Securing Top 3: 43%

It’s hard to believe, but Mike Budenholzer has fallen off the NBA level and is out of a job just years after being lauded the second Greg Popovic.  Will Mo Bamba from Texas or perhaps Marvin Bagley III from Duke be the choice here for the Hawks, or will they be looking at better real estate?

Orlando Magic:

Likely Draft Slot: #5

Odds of Securing #1: 9%

Odds of Securing Top 3: 29%

Rumor has it the Penny doll is making an appearance at this year’s NBA draft lottery.  The Orlando Magic have the fifth best shot at landing the #1 pick and will have to conjure up some of their name to have their hands on a talent like Ayton’s.  Trae Young may be the selection here if the Magic do pick at #5.  He has the sort of scoring “it” factor that the Magic are missing badly.

Luke Doncic could be your #1 pick on NBA draft day 2018.

Chicago Bulls:

Likely Draft Slot: #6

Odds of Securing #1: 5%

Odds of Securing Top 3: 18%

The Bulls didn’t have a very good year, but they did show flashes of brilliance along the way.  Kris Dunn, Lauri Markkanen, and Zach Levine are a nice young core, and the Bulls will get to add to it with a lottery level pick here.  While the Bulls would love to jump into the top 5 of the draft, they will be happy if they can get their hands on someone like Jaren Jackson Jr. from Michigan State.  He’d be able to help their scoring and add to their defensive prowess after a year that left a lot to be desired.

Sacramento Kings:

Likely Draft Slot: #7

Odds of Securing #1: 5%

Odds of Securing Top 3: 18%

The Kings made steps in the right direction and the 2018 draft will give them another building block to add to what is an extremely youthful team.  Willie Cauley-Stein, De’Aaron Fox, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Buddy Hield are a good start, but the Kings will be lacking at the Power Forward position.  Zach Randolph is 37 years old.  He couldn’t jump at the start of his career and it’s probably a lot worse now.  Wendell Carter Jr and Jaren Jackson Jr. are early target names for the Kings.

Cleveland Cavaliers:

(via New Jersey Nets)

Likely Draft Slot: #8

Odds of Securing #1: 3%

Odds of Securing Top 3: 10%

The Cavavliers may need this pick desperately when it comes around.  One of the reasons they still have this selection is because of the uncertainty around LeBron James’ impending free agency.  The Cavs were hesitant to trade the pick earlier in the season during the trade deadline when big names like DeAndre Jordan were available.  Could Michael Porter Jr. of Missouri be the next small forward in the city that rocks?  The Cavs may also be hoping Trae Young is available here or wherever they end up drafting.

Jaren Jackson could make some team very happy on draft day.

New York Knicks

Likely Draft Slot: #9

Odds of Securing #1: 2%

Odds of Securing Top 3: 6%

Shoutout to the University of San Diego’s own David Fizdale who recently furthered the USD basketball coaching lineage by coaching in Mecca, aka Madison Square Garden.  The Knicks had an abysmal year and will be looking for point guard help for superstar Kristaps Porzingis.  Collin Sexton makes sense, though I know I’m hoping he falls farther to the area my Clippers will likely be drafting.  This or a small ball SF would help the Knicks most in the Eastern Conference.

Philadelphia 76ers or Boston Celtics, TBD:

(76ers pick if No. 1 or 6-14, Boston Pick if No. 2-5, via Los Angeles Lakers)

Likely Draft Slot: #10

Odds of Securing #1: 1%

Odds of Securing Top 3: 3%

The 76ers or Celtics will have this pick.  The 76ers get it if it’s number 1 or below the 6 position.  The Celtics get it if it lands in positions 2-5.  Either way, the Lakers lose their pick here and another well managed team ends up with a lottery player.  If this is the 76ers pick (odds are it will be) expect a Mikal Bridges or a Miles Bridges to come off the board and add to the 76ers wealth of young talent.

Charlotte Hornets:

Likely Draft Slot: #11

Odds of Securing #1: 1%

Odds of Securing Top 3: 3%

The forward spot is an area of concern for the Charlotte Hornets.  The roster is aging and while Marvin Williams is productive at 32 years of age, there are many questions around whether or not he will last and keep up his solid production.  Kemba Walker is a big question mark this year as he is entering free agency in the summer.  Gilgeous-Alexander could be the pick out of Kentucky.

Will Mo Bamba be available past #10 in this years NBA draft?

Detroit Pistons or Los Angeles Clippers, TBD:

(Pistons pick if No. 1-4, Clippers pick if No. 5+)

Likely Draft Slot: #12

Odds of Securing #1: .7%

Odds of Securing Top 3: 2.5%

The Clippers endured a strange year that saw them lose both Blake Griffin and Chris Paul.  DeAndre Jordan is a free agent, and many are beginning to wonder what type of team the Clippers will be moving forward.  It’s a fair question.  Jerry West did his NBA logo thing and shook up this roster.  He will be attending the NBA draft lottery tonight.  It’s fitting.  What happens here will impact the Clippers entire future.

Los Angeles Clippers:

Likely Draft Slot #13

Odds of Securing #1: .6%

Odds of Securing Top 3: 2.2%

If the ping pong balls come the right way, the Clippers will have both #12 and #13 in this draft.  Jerry West may use these two picks and some of the young talent on the Clippers roster to trade into the top 5.  Perhaps there is someone he likes?  The alternative is two valuable picks near the end of the lottery.  Robert Williams, Miles Bridges, Gilgeous-Alexander, and Lonnie Walker could all be hot names for the Clippers at 12 and 13.  Either way, this pick will be a big part of where the Clippers, West, and Steve Balmer go in the future.

Denver Nuggets:

Likely Draft Slot: #14

Odds of Securing #1: .5%

Odds of Securing Top 3: 1.8%

The Nuggets probably won’t land the top spot, but crazier things have happened.  A 16 seed DID beat a 1 seed this year in the NCAA tournament.  Anything is possible!  What’s more likely is the Nuggets grabbing a beer and drafting at 14.  Gary Harris and Jamal Murray would pair well with a high motor defender.  Perhaps Zhaire Smith will still be available or Knox.

Enjoy the lottery and the playoff game tonight everyone.  Don’t forget to check in on our baseball picks and diversify your sportsbooks for best possible lines.  We have more information on that here.

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