NBA Free Pick – May 15, 2018

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NBA Free Pick Today

Will LeBron James bounce back in Game 2?

Yesterday’s free pick was a tough one.  We went against the betting consensus when we decided to pick up the under in the game 1 contest between the Warriors and Rockets.  Everything looked good late even though the two teams combined for over 60 points in the first quarter.  With just seconds left to play and the game out of reach, the Rockets took an inexplicable intentional foul.  The over proceeded to hit and we fell off with a back-door loser.

We did get legalized gambling though yesterday!  Shoutout to the Supreme Court for making everyone a winner!  For those who weren’t, check out our draft lottery article to see if you’ll take the L and bounce back.

Backdoor betting losses happen, and that was a terrible one.  Yesterday’s bet was sharp.  We sided with just under 30 percent of the public.  Vegas was supposed to win with us last night, and 9.9/10 times we take that game late if tomfoolery doesn’t happen. 

People like to joke that players in a close game who f*** up had money on it.  There’s very little chance the Rocket’s player who took the foul last night did.  It just sucks when you’re on the other side of one of those losses.  A fix feels like an explicable explanation.  Really though, there isn’t an explanation there outside of idiocy.

Today we’re back to our bread and butter.  The Celtics have been big winners for us in this playoff slate and they take on LeBron James and the Cavaliers in a crucial game 2.  LeBron James has won 5 consecutive Eastern conference series when falling behind 0-1.  Is this the same level of team behind him as in the past or will LeBron James be looking at a first when he falls to the Celtics in the East?

The defense against the King in game 1 was relentless. Will it be the same in Game 2?

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics

Celtics Lead Series 1-0

Pointspread: Celtics Pick -109

Moneyline: Off

Total Points: Under 203.5

Game 1 between the Celtics and Cavaliers was a total dud.  While many expected King James to come out with a roar, fans were met with the sound of crickets from the NBA’s most dominant player.  The Cavaliers did very little to come out and be remotely competitive with the C’s in game 1.  Brad Stevens was victorious again against another line that did not favor him.

The Celtics have been disrespected multiple times by oddsmakers in this 2018 playoffs.  Perhaps that is the reason that the Celtics are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 home games. 

The Cavaliers opened as 1 point favorites in Game 2 before this line moved back to a pick.  It briefly jumped to Celtics -1 on Monday, but has been a even tilt ever since according to bookmakers.

James committed seven turnovers in game 1 but didn’t seem too worried about it.  Bettors seem to think the same way.  70% of total bets are siding with the Over in terms of public betting consensus.

What seemed obvious about Game 1 is that this is going to be one trashy series with a lot of defense.  The under 204.5 hit over the weekend for us.  We expect a similarly trashy game tonight.

Because the number is SOOO LOW, take the Under 203.5 in tonight’s Cavaliers-Celtics contest. 

Enjoy the draft lottery and MLB picks tonight!

Under 203.5

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