NBA Free Picks – April 14, 2018

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NBA Free Picks ATS – April 14, 2018

I have one question.  Are you ready for the playoffs?  I know I am, If only because a fresh start is needed.  It’s like a brand-new campaign!  The LazyBets basketball squad had a pedestrian season of picks.  Sure, we had situations playing against us at times.  Salt Lake City left the team hamstrung.  When all was said and done, we finished with a record of 11-1 which is simply unacceptable. A good post season of picks is needed if we are to have a profitable NBA betting season. 

Don’t forget to check out our baseball picks.  We are on a major heater.  Basketball needs to have some of what Baseball is having.  We’re 13-4 in our last 17 baseball picks. 

To get us started on the basketball side, we’re going to do a little something uncommon. 

Here at Lazybets, we attempt to bring you the best coverage on betting lines without bombarding you with advertisements.  We’ve always used information sources like Covers.com as valuable resource.  We digest the covers.com statistical coverage (which is copious) and give the valuable parts back to the public with analysis.  The product is (usually) great and profitable picks at sample size.

Covers.com provides us with a lot of great information.  We can’t help but spread one of their great trend finds going into the playoffs.  According to Covers, “When an NBA team falls behind 0-2 in a playoff series, bet on them to cover the first-half line in game 3.”  Astoundingly if you had done this in 2017, you’d be 9-3 ATS.  If you did this the last three playoff rounds, you’d be killing it with a 28-3 ATS record. 

How crazy is that?  Follow their advice.  That’s as close to a lock as it gets and there will be opportunities to bet on it this season.  Nice spot covers.com.  Thanks for what seems like free money.

#1 Toronto Raptors vs #8 Washington Wizards

NBA Playoff First Round – Eastern Conference -Series Tied 0-0

Spread: Toronto Raptors -8

Total: Under 212(-105)

We uncovered some interesting facts in our Eastern Conference Playoff Preview.  Perhaps the most fascinating is the Toronto Raptors’ record in Game 1’s of the NBA Playoffs.  In their history, the Raptors are 1-12 in Game 1’s.  It doesn’t get much worse than that.

The Raptors didn’t fare great in the Eastern Conference Playoffs last season.  They were 3-6-1 against the spread in ten games played.  They have a losing record ATS dating back to 2016.  7-13 is just above a 33% win rate.  Not good.

Here’s another fun trend.  The Raptors are 12-27-2 in all postseason games under Dwayne Casey.  They were swept in 2015 by the…Wizards. 

Ouch.

The Raptors are still favored by 8 in game one of their NBA Playoff series against the visiting Washington Wizards.  We wonder if they deserve it.

The Raptors didn’t finish the season strongly.  They were 6-4 overall and 3-6-1 ATS.  They are only 21-19 at home AT this season.

The Wizards were awful to end the regular season, but I think it might have been intentional.  They finished up with a smelly 1-5 record heading into the close.  The last game of the season was a loss to the Eastern Conference bottom dweller Orlando Magic.  

The Wizards only needed to win one of three games against Atlanta, Chicago, or Orlando.  That would have put them up against the Boston Celtics. 

They lost them all.  John Wall sat out every single game.

SO…who do you think the Wizards wanted to play?

Not only am I taking the Washington Wizards +8 today, I’m taking the moneyline, Washington Wizards +285.  John Wall and company will be ready for Toronto.  Toronto will do what it does and lose game 1.  The over looks really good too.

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#3 Philadelphia 76ers vs #6 Miami Heat

NBA Playoff First Round – Eastern Conference - Series Tied 0-0

Spread: Philadelphia 76ers -6.5

Total: Under 213 (-105)

If you trusted the process, you now have your reward.  The 76ers are a darling of the NBA at this point, and they’re absolutely on fire.

Joel Embiid remains out for Game 1, but that won’t be too concerning for the 76ers.  They’ve won 16 in a row and are 11-5 ATS in that time.  They just finished the season with an emphatic 130-95 blowout of the Milwaukee Bucks (psst…we think they’re going to win their first round series against the Celtics.)

Big money has been moving in on this game.  We’ve seen a move from 212 to 215 and back down to 213 on the over under.  That’s some volatility.

I do think the 76ers are going to win this game, but I do think the over will hit due to trends and the styles of both of these teams. 

Take a look at the over.  We love 213 at Bovada (especially when it’s as high as 215 elsewhere).  There’s value to be had as we look at trying to go 3-0 today.

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