NBA Free Picks – April 16, 2018

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NBA Playoffs Free Picks ATS - Game 2

Unlike Lebron James in game one of the Pacers vs Cavaliers series, the Lazybets basketball staff is making it rain when it counts.  We’re 3-0-1 in our first four picks of the playoffs and are over .500 for the first time all year.  If you stuck with us, your bankroll is now in the positive.  We’re 15-13 overall.  What a time to be alive!

Our free MLB picks have been on fire and our free NBA picks are finally starting to catch up with baseball’s torrid pace.  Our free MLB picks are still 14-4 in the last 18 selections.  We are 16-9 dating back to the start of the season and have proved a great return for those who have tailed our bets!  That gives every sport of ours a winning record to date and it’s something we’re very proud of.

Here at Lazybets.com we aim to give you the best free sports picks for those who are too lazy or busy to do the research themselves.  We’ve been there.  Every bettor wants a chance, but doesn’t necessarily have the time to comb statistics.  We aggregate the data that matters so that our readers make good statistical decisions that are based on betting trends and Las Vegas Sportsbook indicators.  These techniques are tried and true in Las Vegas Casinos.

Today, our free NBA picks look at the over under and pointspread for Game 2 between the visiting Miami Heat and the Philadelphia 76ers.

Game 2: #6 Miami Heat vs. #3 Philadelphia 76ers

Philadelphia 76ers lead 1-0

Spread: Philadelphia 76ers -7

Moneyline: Miami Heat +255

Total: Under 216 (-110)

Ben Simmons is amazing, isn’t he?  We’ve become very enamored with the skilled point forward, and why not?  He’s lead the 76ers to 17 straight victories and a 12-5 record in their last 17 against the spread.  We’ve been riding them, and there’s really no reason to stop.

The Process isn’t a joke anymore.  It’s very much for real and it’s downright scary to just about everyone in the Eastern Conference.  The Sixers obliterated the Heat in game one, dropping 130 on the visitors as they cruised to a 130-103 victory.  The 27 point win easily covered the 5.5 point spread.  The 233 was well over the 213 over under total posted by Vegas.  They could have held the Heat to 84 points and still covered the total.

We came out smelling like roses with 76ers, our best bet team to date on LazyBets.  We’re doing it again.

We’ve discussed “betting with Vegas” on this site before which is also known in some circles as contrarian theory.  Essentially when the public loads up on one side of the line, and Vegas moves that line contrary to the volume, you have an indicator of a potential edge. 

For example, 80 percent of public money is on the under 216 here in Game 2 of Sixer Heat.  The line opened at 215.5 and has moved up, making it EASIER to bet on the under.  That doesn’t make much sense when Vegas tries to stay 50/50 to limit risk.  It indicates risk appetite on Vegas’ part.  It seems statistically Vegas feels there’s a good chance this goes over.

For that and that alone, we are taking the Over 216 here and the over for the second time in the series. 

In addition, we do like the 76ers -7 here.  Miami has struggled with its efficiencies against the 76ers all season and that won’t change here.  Goran Dragic made just 4 if 14 shots as the Heat couldn’t keep pace.  We expect the Heat to take another double-digit loss here.  This may end up being a sweep if Eric Spolestra isn’t able to adjust and find options for his team.

Bet Heat/76ers Over 216

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