Packers vs Patriots – NFL Picks and Parlays 11/4/18

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When you talk about the best quarterbacks in the NFL, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are both near the top of that list, even if they are both below the new greatest quarterback of all-time: Patrick Mahomes.

A battle between Brady and Rodgers is a dream matchup, and should make for one of the most entertaining games of the week. Tom Brady’s Patriots are a 6-point favorite over Aaron Rodgers’ Packers in a battle of two of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time.

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NFL Free Picks and Parlays

Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots

Time: Sunday, 8:20 PM EST

TV: NBC

Spread: Patriots -6 (-110)

Moneyline: Packers +222

Point Total: Over 56 (-110)


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Packers Week 9 Outlook

Green Bay is tied for sixth in yards per play at 6.2 yards per offensive snap this season. Surprisingly, both the running game and passing game for the Packers has been on point when called upon this season.

The Packers are tied for fifth in yards per rush attempt, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Aaron Jones is averaging 6.2 yards per carry on his 44 attempts on the season. The Packers need to use him more often, especially now that they have traded away Ty Montgomery to the Ravens. Balancing out their offense with a few more carries for Jones would take some pressure off of Rodgers as well.

Led by Aaron Rodgers, the Packers passing game is 10th in yards per pass attempt at 7.4 yards per attempt through the air. They’ve done that in spite of Rodgers losing two of his favorite targets, due to an injury to Randall Cobb and the release of Jordy Nelson this offseason.  Even while throwing to players who may have been created in Madden before the season, Rodgers has been great, with the Packers sitting in 13th in points per game, scoring 25 points per game.

On defense, the Packers are allowing 24.7 points per game, good for 17th in the league and for an average point differential of +0.3 points per game. The Packers are tied for 11th in yards against per play, giving up 5.5 yards per play to their opponents.

They are tied for 17th in yards allowed per rush attempt, giving up 4.4 yards per carry and tied for 17th against the pass, giving up seven yards per pass attempt. The Packers are pretty mediocre on defense, as all of these rankings in the teens prove. The Packers traded away safety Haha Clinton-Dix, which will decrease the impact of their secondary in time for a matchup with one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time.

Green Bay looked good last week against the undefeated Rams in a road game, but having to go on back to back road games on different sides of the country with Brady and Belichick waiting on the second one is a tall order.

Patriots Week 9 Outlook

The Patriots are tied for 14th in the league in yards per play, averaging 5.7 yards per offensive snap and are fourth in scoring offense, averaging 29.9 points per game. They are tied for 20th in yards per carry, averaging 4.1 yards per attempt on the ground, but have been smart about how they use their running backs. Sony Michel is still limited with a knee injury, but the Patriots have been able to use James White as an extension of the running game with short passes.

Through the air, the Patriots are tied for 12th in yards per pass attempt with 7.2 yards per attempt. That number should continue to improve as deep threat Josh Gordon gets more acclimated to the Patriots offense and Julian Edelman continues to get back into the flow as well.

The Patriots are 12th in scoring defense, giving up 23.1 points per game. They are tied for 20th in yards per play allowed, giving up 5.8 yards per play, tied for 17th in yards per carry allowed at 4.4 yards per carry, and 11th in yards per pass attempt allowed, giving up 6.8 yards per attempt. Playing Derek Anderson last week certainly helped that passing yardage number, or at least offset the damage that was done to it by their game against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

It has been five straight wins for the Patriots after a 1-2 start to the season. Last week was their first time failing to score 38 points or more during that five-game stretch. Against a Packers defense that is pretty mediocre, the Patriots could have another offensive outburst in this game.

Packers vs. Patriots Trends

The Packers enter this game with a 3-3-1 record straight up and a 3-4 record against the spread. Green Bay is just 3-7 against the spread in its last 10 games, and is 1-4 against the spread in its last five road games. Also, November games have been an issue for the Packers, with the team going 7-16 against the spread in its last 23 games in the month of November.

New England comes into this showdown of legendary quarterbacks with a 6-2 straight up record and a 5-3 mark against the spread. Short weeks haven’t been a problem for the Patriots, with the team going 4-1 against the spread in its last five Sunday games following an appearance on Monday Night Football. They are also an incredible 36-16 against the spread in their last 52 total games.

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NFL Free Pick

Packers +6

We are all winners for being alive to see a game between Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, as there won’t be any bad quarterback play in this game. A high scoring game is definitely possible in this game given how well both quarterbacks are playing and how suspect both defenses can be.

The Patriots should win this game straight up, but the Packers will be able to keep up with them thanks to their offense, at least to the point of being able to cover this number. At the very least, Rodgers should be able to work the ball down the field for a backdoor cover at the end of the game if the Patriots find themselves up by double digits late.

Bet the Packers +6 (-110)

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