NFL Futures – Odds to Win the AFC East

AFC East

Odds to Win the Superbowl provided by BetOnline

The New England Patriots have dominated the AFC East during the Tom Brady and Bill Belichick era of the franchise. They have won the division nine straight times and 14 out of the last 15 years. They are poised to do the same again in 2018 and NFL futures lines indicate the same things. With a division that includes the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins, the Patriots are the one team with consistency heading into the 2018-19 season.  The entirety of the AFC East all looks different than they did last year. Can any of the three Pats AFC East foes knock off New England for the top spot in the division? Here is a look at the odds to win the AFC East NFL futures, with odds provided from our top sportsbook BetOnline.

Odds to win the Super Bowl:

Odds as of 8/16/18 at BetOnline

New England Patriots

Odds to AFC West: -500

Over/Under Win Total: 11.5

When will they retire?

As is par for the course, the Patriots are massive favorites to come out of the AFC East division with the top spot and secure at least one home playoff game. The Patriots have won 12 or more games in eight straight seasons and covered the over of 12.5 games that was set on them last year.  They were one of three teams to win 13 games.

The Patriots kept this streak alive last year despite massive struggles at the beginning of the season on defense.  The beginning of the season saw them torched by the Chiefs and the Panthers, but they were able to recover.

Differences of opinion regarding Jimmy Garoppolo and the decision to trade him could be something to keep an eye on this season as it was reported that Brady and Belichick came at the topic from different viewpoints.  The longevity of current Patriots also comes into question. Rob Gronkowski’s health and desire to keep playing football factors into the future and could get in the way of the Patriots extending their streak atop their division to a decade.

It’s been widely reported that the Patriots have been underbet in the Vegas casinos.  There’s really only been action on the Patriots to miss the playoffs, and if you ever listen to VSin, you’ll hear the bookmakers laughing about how those bettors are throwing away their money.

Unless you’re rolling with a pretty big bankroll, the Patriots are a tough pick to get any major value with.  That doesn’t mean that they’re a bad investment. It just means that they’re an expensive one. 

Over 11.5 wins (-110) looks like a good bet for the Patriots.  Consider that if you're interested in the Patriots.

Miami Dolphins

Odds to Win AFC East: +800

Over/Under Win Total: 6.5

Amendola adds a stable option for Tannehill.

The Dolphins haven’t won the Division since 2008, but they were the last team to dethrone the Patriots off of their perch. Head Coach Adam Gase is entering his third year and will largely have his own personnel. He’ll also have his quarterback.  The Jay Cutler bandaid has finally been ripped off in Miami and the Dolphins are ready to get back to business with Tannehill who went 8-5 before having his year ended.

Frank Gore will try to shore up the running game.  He’s bee remarkably consistent. Danny Amendola adds a winning attitude and a lot of experience to these receivers.  He should be a nice security blanket for Tannehill this season, especially if he's under pressure.

A young defense is a year older, but realistically, a bet on the Dolphins to win the Division is a bet on a Tom Brady injury.  That’s really the case with this entire division.

An 8-8 season or the like can be expected out of the Dolphins this year making an over play on the 6.5 win line a good look.  

Even at +800, they’re not getting enough to make a bet here worth it.

Buffalo Bills

Odds to Win the AFC East: +1000

Over/Under Win Total: 5.5

AJ McCarron

The Buffalo Bills ended 2017 in poetic fashion.  The longest NFL playoff drought was ended when the Bills beat the Dolphins 22-16 and the Bengals upset the Ravens 31-27 propelling the Bills to the Wild Card.  The Bills dream ended there with a 10-3 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars and the #1 defense in the NFL. The lack of offense prompted sizeable personnel changes for the bills.  

Tyrod Taylor (Browns) is gone and his absence should be noted as the Bills showing intent.  Taylor left for another situation where a young QB will soon be the starter, but it’s one where he’s virtually guaranteed the 2018 season in Cleveland.  The Bills will likely be starting rookie Josh Allen sooner than later and indicated that to Taylor which lead to the departure. For the start of the season Allen will be sitting behind AJ McCarron who signed as a free agent after semi-successfully backing up Andy Dalton in Cincinnati.

Bills fans seem sold on McCarron as being a franchise changer, but that doesn’t seem to be the case here.  With Josh Allen as the QB of the future in Buffalo, this looks like a rebuilding year. If you doubled the 10 to 1 odds, we might throw $10 on it.  At the current odds we just can’t see a situation where these odds are valuable to bettors of the Bills.

If you think the Bills will win over 5.5 games this year, good luck to you!

Editors Note: McCarron was lost for the season just last week here in August.  Don't bet on the Bills. -LB 8/28/18

New York Jets

Odds to Win the AFC East: +1400

Over/Under Win Total: 6

Teddy Bridgewater is the wildcard for the Jets, at least in the short term.

Sam Darnold is the quarterback of the future for the Jets.  The quarterback was drafted third overall by the Jets in the 2018 NFL draft and has already showed a lot of promise in the preseason.  He has been a quick study of the offense which has many analysts predicting him starting, some as soon as Week 1 of this season.

The plan going into the off-season for the Jets was for Josh McCown to start.  That has changed since Teddy Bridgewater found himself healthy No one in the world is thinking that McCown will be a world beater, and no one expected Bridgewater to ever be back here at the NFL level, his injury was that catastrophic.

This line is really reliant on Darnold and what you think of him.  If you like Bridgewater too, then maybe you want to back the jets for some reason.  The NFL has seen rookie starlets and comeback stories. You can look to rookies last year like Deshaun Watson to see how one player can make a team a playoff run.  Who hasn’t heard of Kurt Warner? Just know that’s what you’re betting on, a long-shot.

Not many were high on the Jets last year.  Even less are on the bandwagon now if McCown gets the go ahead in week 1.  The Jets are a franchise in the midst of change. It’s best to stay far away from them this year.

AFC East Futures Picks and Parlays

New England Patriots to Win the AFC: -500

Dolphins Over 6.5 Wins

Tannehill should lead the Dolphins to over 6.5 wins in a bad division.

There aren’t a lot of ways around it.  The AFC East division is really weak. In a league that relies heavily on the play of the Quarterback, two of the teams are going to be relying on journeymen to simply pass the reigns of their franchise in seasons to come.

That really looks like two things for bettors.  The first is the obvious, and that's a Patriots AFC title.  If Tom Brady is upright, the Patriots should win the division.  The -500 from BetOnline is generous. In reality this should be -2000.

The other bet is a bit of a safe one as well.  With the Dolphins getting Tannehill back and benefitting from a rebuild year on defense, 6.5 wins seems like a lock and the Dolphins look golden for 8-8.  They fins should go 4-0 against the Jets and Bills if they do their homework and show up on the field.

Take the Dolphins over 6.5 wins and the Patriots -500 to win the AFC East as a parlay to make this division palatable.  

Stay tuned for more NFL futures articles.  Need a sportsbook? We’ve got you covered!

Thanks for reading and good luck out there!  Agree or disagree? Comment below and we’ll interact.

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