Trump Prop Bets Suspended at Bovada – April 10, 2018

Trump Prop Bets Suspended at Bovada

You may have heard the news.  Yesterday an FBI raid seized privileged files of attorney Michael Cohen, the famous right hand legal aid for 45th US President Donald Trump.  The seizure has sent ripples across the political world and is beginning to take its toll on the stock market.

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Seriously, don’t even try it.

The Trump Details:

Michael Cohen is the long-time Trump employee turned personal attorney.  Some believe he could be the link between Donald Trump and illicit foreign activities. He is also alleged to be the primary player in the in the Stormy Daniels hush money scandal. 

FBI agents served a search warrant and raided the attorney’s office.  Allegedly some of the documents they sought dated back several years and prior to Trump’s presidency.   One of the documents allegedly pertained to a personal equity line of credit taken out by Cohen to cover the hush payments to pornstar Daniels.

Donald trump tweeted that “Attorney Client Privledge is dead” and that the entire process was the FBI’s version of a “Witch-Hunt.”  We can expect this storm to continue to play out in the coming weeks. 

Bovada seems to think the end might be near too.  That or this is a big enough macro event for them to have to reassess their odds.

Odds of Trump’s Impeachment

The odds of Trump to do basically anything have been pulled off of the books at Bovada.lv.  The only bet currently available to wager on is the winner of the 2020 US presidential election.  There Trump is favored at 3/1.  He is followed by Oprah Winfrey at 10/1, Kristen Gillibrand at 18/1, and Mark Zuckerberg at 25/1.  Previous presidential runner up Hilary Clinton is listed at 36 to 1 to win in 2020.

Previously listed at Bovada were the following odds.  These odds are currently unavailable to bet and were last published as of late March.

Donald Trump Exit Date:

2018: 2.5/1

2019: 4/1

2020 or Later: -150

Will Donald Trump Complete a Full Term as POTUS?

Yes: Even

No: Even

Will Donald Trump Be Convicted by the Senate in his First Term:

Yes: +3250

No:  Why would you ever bet no?

Will Donald Trump Be Impeached by the House in his 1st Term:

Yes: -200

Will Donald Trump Resign the Presidency in his 1st Term:

Yes +125

Political Bet Analysis – Donald Trump

Not a good week for Donald Trump.  First, the story of how he lobbied against Fire Sprinklers in a hotel room where a man died. Now this.  At least he has Mark Zuckerberg in for a Congressional visit today.  That should help distract from this story.

Looking at the odds, it seems Bovada was somewhat favoring a Donald Trump early exit in 2018.  If he makes it through the early portion, Bovada seems to think he’ll have a decent chance of staying until the end of his term.   The 2.5 to 1 payout for 2018 vs the 4 to 1 payout for 2019 is pretty telling.

I might grab Oprah Winfrey here 10/1 to win the presidency in 2020.  It feels more and more like we’re entering an age of change where folks would like different prominent figureheads at the helm. 

Whoever it is in 2020, Bovada sure seems to think the house is coming down now.  If this includes Pence, who knows who the next US President will be.  Bovada certainly is concerned about the fluidity of the situation, so much so that you can’t bet on it.

Trump to Win (+300) in 2020?

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