World Cup Free Picks and Parlays – 6/20/18

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World Cup Free Picks

The free picks and parlays section of the World Cup wasn’t what we’d hoped for yesterday.  The Columbians saw red in the third minute of their game against Japan and were never able to fully recover.  Japan didn’t play particularly well, but their underdog win spoiled our free pick.  Egypt then went on to lay an egg against host Russia.

Bad days happen, and this is part of the variance of gambling on sports. Events as big as the World Cup are especially prone to errors as emotions charge mistakes.  We’ve seen several own goals and bad penalties this tournament and they’ve made up a good share of goals.  That’s one of the things that makes betting on Soccer one of the tougher places to win statistically.

Losing a man is so powerful in world football.  It’s also something we cannot control or predict.   It’s madness that a Columbian defender can go full blown Luis Suarez to save a certain goal at this stage of the tournament.  We are in leg 1 of the Group Stages, not the World Cup Quarterfinal.  But that’s sports.  That's gambling.  That’s variance.

Dust yourself off and prepare for a new day of free picks.  We get back on track today with wins as Portugal takes on Morocco and we have several bets..  We feel this is one of the more winnable games of the tournament for our free picks.  Let’s get to it.

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Group B – Leg 2

Portugal vs. Morocco


Portugal: -156 (BetOnline)

Morocco: +500 (BetOnline)

Draw: +255 (BetOnline)

Goal Total: Under 2.5 (-107) (BetOnline)

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Portugal vs Morocco Preview

Ronaldo is in total control of the Golden Ball with 3 goals in the tournament and a hat-trick already.

Christiano Ronaldo was majestic in leg 1 of Group B.  As he is known to do, Ronaldo placed Portugal directly on his shoulders and carried them to a draw by producing a classic Christiano free kick near the final whistle to complete a hat trick on the largest of stages against Spain, a perennial powerhouse.  The two were both looking to win and played aggressively.  The end product of Spain Portugal was a tremendously entertaining and memorable game.  3-3 was more than a fair result.  Spain and Portugal now look to secure placement in the knockout stages against lesser sides.

Ronaldo is in form and that’s scary for a Morocco side that doesn’t have the likes of Sergio Ramos and David De Gea to quell an offensive onslaught.  The Moroccans are well regimented in defense and it’s the reason that they’ve arrived on the world stage.  It remains to be seen if they can put a dampener on one of the greatest attacking forwards of all time.

Ronaldo has mind blowingly scored a goal every 51 minutes in Portugal’s qualifying run.  His La Liga rate was once ever 88 minutes for the UCL Champions Real Madrid.  If there’s one thing we’re sure of, it’s not if Morocco is going to get scored on by Ronaldo, but how many times.

Morocco comes into this game after completely disappearing in the second half against Iran and allowing a late goal that saw a precious draw point slip away.  Nearly all their scoring chances came in the first half against an underdog Iranian squad.  Tired legs destroyed Morocco and they gave up a goal to a much lesser team.  What will tired legs do this game?

Portugal Morocco Pick:

Portugal to Lead After 30 Minutes: +220 (Betonline)

Portugal to Score a Penalty: +350 (Betonline)

Portugal: -156 (Betonline)

This may make a fun parlay, but we recommend betting these lines independently.  Portugal should easily lead this game after 30 minutes and we were tempted to take the 15 minute line.  Grab Portugal with the lead after 30 +220.

Penalties have been rampant in this tournament and it’s largely because of VAR use in the world cup.  Portugal to score a penalty +350 looks like amazing value when the Iranians will likely be burying 11 men behind the ball.

Finally, Portugal has every right to win this game and do so convincingly.  We like Portugal -156 on the drawline.

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