Thursday was a lucrative day for LazyBetsWorld Cup free picks and parlays. Those of you savvy enough to read our World Cup Free picks AND follow our Instagram were rewarded with two winners on the day for no cost. Belgium beat England with +130 odds and the Colombians knocked Senegal out of the tournament which was expected by our staff and by Vegas.
With the group stage of the World Cup now over, the scene transitions to the knockout stages where much more is at stake. A lot changes from the betting perspective too. One of the things that is important to look at is the changes in dynamic for soccer’s most popular bet, the three way draw-line.
If the two competing teams are level at the end of 90 in the knockout stages, things will go to extra time and penalties. This is different from the group stage where a tied scoreline saw the game finishing in a draw. It’s important to remember that the three-way draw-line for world football is still available despite penalties and extra time, it just keeps operating in the same way it has. Three-way draw-line bets are only measured by regulation. If 90 minutes concludes your game is over and the score at the time is used to grade wager outcomes.
Draws can become much more relevant at this point in time of the World Cup, especially when you consider it from the perspective of taking the three-way draw-line. With extra time to win a game, the teams on the field technically have more time than us to win their fixture if we make this play.
Today’s games are enticing. They feature France vs. Argentina in the early game with Uruguay and Portugal following suit shortly after. Our free pick looks at France against Argentina in what might be Messi’s final World Cup game…or is it?
Argentina somehow snuck into the knockout stages after being dead to rights against Nigeria. Having collected just 1 point in their first two World Cup Fixtures, Messi’s squad needed a win to advance to the knockout stage. The South Americans were drawing 1-1 with a decent Nigeria side until Marcos Rojo saved the day with a late stunner.
Somehow the Argentinians are through and they have done nothing but struggle against European competition. Looking across from them now are perhaps the best European team left in the tournament in France. That probably doesn’t spell success for the Argentinians if this competition has been any evidence of how things should play out.
Argentina drew against Iceland and looked embarrassing in a 3-0 loss to Croatia. Those aren’t the types of results that earn my money as backing. In fact, that’s normally what earns the fade.
On the other side, things have changed for the betting consensus on France. It’s tough to pinpoint exactly why.
Prior to the first ball being kicked in Russia, the French were +400 to win the World Cup. The French team is stacked, and yet the odds have doubled, with +800 (8 to 1) being seen on sites like mybookie despite the field being cut in half.
We took France to win it all today at 8-1 because it provides insane value. There’s a free nugget pick for you. We’re in a later stage of the tournament, Germany is already out, and yet, for some reason, France has been completely overlooked as a team.
That’s what Lionel Messi can do to a game. It’s clear that bookies are still taking a lot of action on Argentina. It’s also clear that they fear the magic that the Barcelona man can strike into any game in just a few moments time.
They shouldn’t be so worried, as Messi’s greatness also seems to be the problem. As Messi goes, so go Argentina. Unfortunately, the man seems disinterested on the pitch with his national counterparts. He finds a way to make Angel Di Maria, Sergio Aguerro, and many other world class players look pedestrian and it’s baffling to watch. That’s why they lose this game. They’ve been doing the same thing all tournament and are a complete disappearing act in the final third.
France are a much better orchestrated squad. With Kylian M’Bape, Mousa Dembele, and Antoinne Greizman leading an attack that is backed by Paul Pogba, it’s crazy to us that France are +140 to win this game on the tree way draw-line. They’re still the best team, top to bottom, that this tournament has to offer on paper.
With the results the Argentinians have put in, the respect makes next to no sense as Vegas seems to be thinking draw and a France win in penalties our extra time. The straight winner price of this game for France is -150.
We think France rolls here and couldn’t recommend a heavier bet on the knockout stages. The World Cup is full of drama, and anything goes in the knockout round, but with the quality and speed that France possess, they will be no match for Argentina.